{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6259353c-bb54-46a2-ab21-fcf3485a2d9f", "symbol": "SMR", "name": "Nuscale Power Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.649, "architecture_energy": 50.148, "architecture_maturity": 86.501, "architecture_confidence": 89.778, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.78, "rotation_up": 16.47, "upward_expansion": 8.19, "deceleration": 44.29, "rotation_down": 60.22, "downward_expansion": 81.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.768667, 9.121455, 10.004476, 10.608022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.82, "trend_reference": 11.994, "distance_from_trend": -0.181257, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.141026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.391612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.551978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.439817, "excess_performance": -0.565442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181257, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223857, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.391612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.56552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.439817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882782, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149219601, "relative_activity": 0.950826, "balance": 0.882782, "dry_up": 0.995704, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201343, "annualized_volatility": 0.830082, "from_high_reference": -0.828979, "from_low_reference": 0.361997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.994, "fair_value_reference": 16.141026, "structural_low": 7.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.085993, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.815126, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.18298, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.223716, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.101441, "worst_return": -0.454418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.337232, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.505161, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.553191, "worst_return": -0.516176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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16.110962, "relative_strength": -68.261757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.520014, "energy": 68.577225, "activity_lines": [ 9.065333, 9.841273, 10.55981, 11.348172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.09, "volume": 177540064, "typical_volume": 151088655.15, "trend": 12.613333, "fair_value": 16.117628, "relative_strength": -65.086652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.093389, "energy": 70.376938, "activity_lines": [ 8.538, 9.420364, 10.292571, 11.041806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.42, "volume": 162923967, "typical_volume": 154903382.15, "trend": 12.350333, "fair_value": 16.124231, "relative_strength": -62.660086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.664621, "energy": 66.792309, "activity_lines": [ 8.364, 9.116545, 10.07381, 10.771269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.82, "volume": 149219601, "typical_volume": 156936761.7, "trend": 11.994, "fair_value": 16.141026, "relative_strength": -56.551978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.649101, "energy": 50.148353, "activity_lines": [ 8.768667, 9.121455, 10.004476, 10.608022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }