{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6261c912-6ba3-4e5b-a724-66f8ad908bd6", "symbol": "MM1", "name": "Midas Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.634, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.875, "architecture_energy": 22.796, "architecture_maturity": 23.607, "architecture_confidence": 89.903, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.48, "rotation_up": 30.31, "upward_expansion": 47.89, "deceleration": 82.53, "rotation_down": 35.46, "downward_expansion": 27.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.874667, 0.874636, 0.8955, 0.886645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.04, "trend_reference": 0.866, "distance_from_trend": 0.200924, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.315728, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.293979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 44.481137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.496403, "excess_performance": 0.432697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200924, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.293979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.551698, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.444811, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.489316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.496403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531142, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2532810, "relative_activity": 1.198552, "balance": 0.531142, "dry_up": 1.224847, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10318, "annualized_volatility": 0.729337, "from_high_reference": -0.087719, "from_low_reference": 2.714286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.866, "fair_value_reference": 0.315728, "structural_low": 0.665, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 6.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14359, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066667, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.62035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.665082, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.161905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.318182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.752809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.253012, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.255, "volume": 1409551, "typical_volume": 1084184.25, "trend": 0.219667, "fair_value": 0.20848, "relative_strength": 21.501215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.613059, "energy": 42.856093, "activity_lines": [ 0.329, 0.328273, 0.283762, 0.253548 ] 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35.405259, "energy": 18.34972, "activity_lines": [ 0.924, 0.934909, 0.915738, 0.884237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.85, "volume": 2184398, "typical_volume": 1874680.05, "trend": 0.832667, "fair_value": 0.303484, "relative_strength": 31.714859, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.504452, "energy": 10.451264, "activity_lines": [ 0.900333, 0.918545, 0.910714, 0.886226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.765, "volume": 2261224, "typical_volume": 1899259.3, "trend": 0.8395, "fair_value": 0.30608, "relative_strength": 17.032467, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.119432, "energy": 17.527188, "activity_lines": [ 0.852333, 0.887091, 0.89831, 0.88186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.74, "volume": 2192049, "typical_volume": 1940337.35, "trend": 0.844167, "fair_value": 0.308612, "relative_strength": 12.14607, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.043837, "energy": 44.400392, "activity_lines": [ 0.805, 0.855636, 0.884548, 0.875441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.83, "volume": 3367430, "typical_volume": 2061814.95, "trend": 0.852167, "fair_value": 0.311176, "relative_strength": 21.252613, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.239983, "energy": 41.192124, "activity_lines": [ 0.802333, 0.844909, 0.880119, 0.874527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.04, "volume": 2532810, "typical_volume": 2113225.2, "trend": 0.866, "fair_value": 0.315728, "relative_strength": 44.481137, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.874894, "energy": 22.795625, "activity_lines": [ 0.874667, 0.874636, 0.8955, 0.886645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }