{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62620a68-9f57-4c40-b6fd-761e58c88e1c", "symbol": "PDI", "name": "PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.927, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.271, "architecture_energy": 54.288, "architecture_maturity": 19.001, "architecture_confidence": 87.834, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.8, "rotation_up": 14.62, "upward_expansion": 10.04, "deceleration": 42.36, "rotation_down": 62.44, "downward_expansion": 83.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.117843, 16.213736, 16.380035, 16.507392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.08, "trend_reference": 16.706606, "distance_from_trend": -0.037506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.276949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.042295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081409, "excess_performance": -0.207034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.037685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13634752, "relative_activity": 1.086032, "balance": 1.037685, "dry_up": 1.028777, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023837, "annualized_volatility": 0.135927, "from_high_reference": -0.100134, "from_low_reference": 0.016756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.706606, "fair_value_reference": 15.276949, "structural_low": 15.815, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.011493, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.013242, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.108297, "worst_return": -0.063588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001742, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001305, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.143171, "worst_return": -0.084232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009428, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.105418, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.18112, "worst_return": -0.109404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.841319, "energy": 35.432707, "activity_lines": [ 16.402271, 16.41243, 16.552646, 16.672389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.35, "volume": 11546551, "typical_volume": 12944089.9, "trend": 16.768313, "fair_value": 15.213159, "relative_strength": -11.304655, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.153407, "energy": 26.176744, "activity_lines": [ 16.413353, 16.38546, 16.525892, 16.645226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.04, "volume": 12512118, "typical_volume": 12826590.25, "trend": 16.754651, "fair_value": 15.235284, "relative_strength": -12.143295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.015408, "energy": 38.264593, "activity_lines": [ 16.303361, 16.318621, 16.473157, 16.598238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 13970302, "typical_volume": 12602032.65, "trend": 16.73347, "fair_value": 15.25571, "relative_strength": -12.909945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.248534, "energy": 43.449028, "activity_lines": [ 16.185592, 16.25536, 16.420862, 16.549551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.08, "volume": 13634752, "typical_volume": 12554646.55, "trend": 16.706606, "fair_value": 15.276949, "relative_strength": -15.042295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.270706, "energy": 54.288276, "activity_lines": [ 16.117843, 16.213736, 16.380035, 16.507392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }