{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62651017-57c3-4cc0-bfc0-ca84e73eed53", "symbol": "00661", "name": "Yuanta Nikkei 225 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.642, "architecture_energy": 26.562, "architecture_maturity": 66.227, "architecture_confidence": 72.914, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.32, "rotation_up": 22.61, "upward_expansion": 56.56, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 33.04, "downward_expansion": 20.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.013332, 85.547272, 84.328809, 81.580107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 84.949997, "trend_reference": 77.911666, "distance_from_trend": 0.090337, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.195897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.539064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.264043, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.232946, "excess_performance": -0.146366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090337, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.539064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.232946, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 325447, "relative_activity": 0.565215, "balance": 0.725023, "dry_up": 1.165976, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048762, "annualized_volatility": 0.259715, "from_high_reference": -0.076128, "from_low_reference": 0.668959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.911666, "fair_value_reference": 55.195897, "structural_low": 65.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011371, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.030691, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.120411, "worst_return": -0.040751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007788, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.059633, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.316446, "worst_return": -0.036677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126095, "worst_return": -0.070019, "sufficient": false }, { 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50.390948, "activity_lines": [ 86.61, 86.784544, 83.237142, 80.169139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.449997, "volume": 561080, "typical_volume": 650582.05, "trend": 76.66, "fair_value": 54.647756, "relative_strength": -11.199916, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.991417, "energy": 33.665757, "activity_lines": [ 85.073332, 86.342726, 83.614285, 80.649354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.400002, "volume": 539608, "typical_volume": 596812.75, "trend": 77.263333, "fair_value": 54.917372, "relative_strength": -9.886179, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.644271, "energy": 27.464202, "activity_lines": [ 84.086667, 85.818181, 83.931428, 81.084193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.949997, "volume": 325447, "typical_volume": 575792.95, "trend": 77.911666, "fair_value": 55.195897, "relative_strength": -10.264043, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.641699, "energy": 26.562472, "activity_lines": [ 84.013332, 85.547272, 84.328809, 81.580107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }