{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6269c045-ca47-4953-8525-4cb6b81febbd", "symbol": "DB28", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.249, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.314, "architecture_energy": 20.562, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 36.263, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.03, "rotation_up": 44.23, "upward_expansion": 23.29, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 15.3, "downward_expansion": 54.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.014667, 15.704328, 15.773848, 15.947127 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.370001, "trend_reference": 16.2862, "distance_from_trend": 0.005146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.69859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.665653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054304, "excess_performance": -0.228551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.677539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4647, "relative_activity": 2.50769, "balance": 4.677539, "dry_up": 3.20517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02857, "annualized_volatility": 0.176511, "from_high_reference": -0.132853, "from_low_reference": 0.122925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.2862, "fair_value_reference": 14.69859, "structural_low": 14.578, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.01921, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.025064, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.135531, "worst_return": -0.074297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.034916, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026917, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.209667, "worst_return": -0.112203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001439, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.10415, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.080666, "worst_return": -0.147471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 15.756, "volume": 7917, "typical_volume": 1291.65, "trend": 16.3814, "fair_value": 14.660346, "relative_strength": -23.292138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.963123, "energy": 36.548078, "activity_lines": [ 15.454933, 15.424436, 15.702771, 15.957974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.176001, "volume": 10094, "typical_volume": 1620.75, "trend": 16.332733, "fair_value": 14.676667, "relative_strength": -20.746504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.231067, "energy": 21.389789, "activity_lines": [ 15.7536, 15.549237, 15.727448, 15.944723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.370001, "volume": 4647, "typical_volume": 1853.1, "trend": 16.2862, "fair_value": 14.69859, "relative_strength": -21.665653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.314439, "energy": 20.562296, "activity_lines": [ 16.014667, 15.704328, 15.773848, 15.947127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }