{ "ticker": { "uuid": "626bba65-33a6-4d0d-aa5e-3301bda06eac", "symbol": "MCK", "name": "Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.295, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.311, "architecture_energy": 46.568, "architecture_maturity": 11.612, "architecture_confidence": 71.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.56, "rotation_up": 11.83, "upward_expansion": 9.16, "deceleration": 40.86, "rotation_down": 63.75, "downward_expansion": 77.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.142667, 3.206182, 3.221336, 3.227147 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.11, "trend_reference": 3.257068, "distance_from_trend": -0.045153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.364828, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.13522, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12791, "excess_performance": -0.156183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028459, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315106, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084203, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.159654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12593, "relative_activity": 1.075272, "balance": 1.159654, "dry_up": 1.193917, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045016, "annualized_volatility": 0.22905, "from_high_reference": -0.12791, "from_low_reference": 0.133403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.257068, "fair_value_reference": 2.364828, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.03219, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017167, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.008307, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.108224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043243, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.616327, "worst_return": -0.129457, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.224721, "energy": 15.520229, "activity_lines": [ 3.238, 3.276182, 3.246232, 3.248878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.07, "volume": 25287, "typical_volume": 13390.7, "trend": 3.259065, "fair_value": 2.356397, "relative_strength": -3.462123, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.581809, "energy": 36.622058, "activity_lines": [ 3.18, 3.237818, 3.231524, 3.236764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.11, "volume": 12593, "typical_volume": 11711.45, "trend": 3.257068, "fair_value": 2.364828, "relative_strength": -3.13522, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.311111, "energy": 46.567769, "activity_lines": [ 3.142667, 3.206182, 3.221336, 3.227147 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }