{ "ticker": { "uuid": "626c8334-72a2-44a4-9687-a1dd769f0877", "symbol": "EDL", "name": "Edel SE & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.051, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.053, "architecture_energy": 23.424, "architecture_maturity": 20.346, "architecture_confidence": 76.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.09, "rotation_up": 19.82, "upward_expansion": 14.06, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 45.75, "downward_expansion": 68.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.8, 4.840727, 4.813619, 4.860348 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 4.903798, "distance_from_trend": -0.029324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.134338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151333, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.254167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032801, "excess_performance": -0.097441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075535, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032801, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.524419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3997, "relative_activity": 0.231503, "balance": 1.524419, "dry_up": 0.714389, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049127, "annualized_volatility": 0.286168, "from_high_reference": -0.117643, "from_low_reference": 0.238777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.903798, "fair_value_reference": 4.134338, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002381, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019827, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.097826, "worst_return": -0.052174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033981, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.013816, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.133028, "worst_return": -0.056522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0225, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.061939, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.07359, "worst_return": -0.059091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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18035.25, "trend": 4.884905, "fair_value": 4.119213, "relative_strength": 4.851978, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.98028, "energy": 9.127221, "activity_lines": [ 4.872, 4.876, 4.8342, 4.87742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.76, "volume": 31819, "typical_volume": 18721.95, "trend": 4.899714, "fair_value": 4.126454, "relative_strength": -0.449259, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.992212, "energy": 16.628892, "activity_lines": [ 4.829333, 4.860364, 4.822511, 4.869362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 3997, "typical_volume": 17265.45, "trend": 4.903798, "fair_value": 4.134338, "relative_strength": -3.254167, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.053162, "energy": 23.424168, "activity_lines": [ 4.8, 4.840727, 4.813619, 4.860348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }