{ "ticker": { "uuid": "626fac3a-3ca5-4d6a-a037-780c07c89f92", "symbol": "NCOD", "name": "Norcod AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.507, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.988, "architecture_energy": 20.905, "architecture_maturity": 20.366, "architecture_confidence": 39.474, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.1, "rotation_up": 45.03, "upward_expansion": 43.32, "deceleration": 33.76, "rotation_down": 27.09, "downward_expansion": 19.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.943333, 10.750909, 10.629619, 10.612516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 10.850333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.728269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.30698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.155071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060345, "excess_performance": -0.185339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004577, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.30698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.338716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67944, "relative_activity": 2.335616, "balance": 0.338716, "dry_up": 2.063963, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098518, "annualized_volatility": 0.370477, "from_high_reference": -0.420213, "from_low_reference": 0.211111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.850333, "fair_value_reference": 15.728269, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.016044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065121, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.906667, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.112717, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.197497, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.446667, "worst_return": -0.2397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.124277, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.245669, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.23, "worst_return": -0.330033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.165546, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.354529, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.003333, "worst_return": -0.327759, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-04-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.845456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.851133, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025751, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013369, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.143813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.294833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084577, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.599998, "volume": 7424, "typical_volume": 13769.05, "trend": 40.293879, "fair_value": 82.239991, "relative_strength": -33.265417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"2026-06-19", "close": 10.45, "volume": 11782, "typical_volume": 31093.4, "trend": 11.365333, "fair_value": 16.808718, "relative_strength": -25.672459, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.17202, "energy": 23.959029, "activity_lines": [ 10.3, 10.482727, 10.424238, 10.787183 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27923.4, "trend": 11.288667, "fair_value": 16.677308, "relative_strength": -22.513066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.967612, "energy": 24.878494, "activity_lines": [ 10.33, 10.481818, 10.417524, 10.731355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.15, "volume": 11051, "typical_volume": 26334.9, "trend": 11.207, "fair_value": 16.494936, "relative_strength": -25.949215, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.237167, "energy": 23.681686, "activity_lines": [ 10.276667, 10.410909, 10.382714, 10.657892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.0, "volume": 24586, "typical_volume": 25443.55, "trend": 11.137, "fair_value": 16.341731, "relative_strength": -18.422585, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.252121, "energy": 6.482493, "activity_lines": [ 10.533333, 10.498182, 10.435762, 10.644538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.4, "volume": 27946, "typical_volume": 26456.8, "trend": 11.040333, "fair_value": 16.185321, "relative_strength": -22.966841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.607821, "energy": 8.929108, "activity_lines": [ 10.526667, 10.463636, 10.435238, 10.596989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.35, "volume": 37814, "typical_volume": 27181.15, "trend": 10.988667, "fair_value": 16.046538, "relative_strength": -17.337791, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.291503, "energy": 7.179168, "activity_lines": [ 10.81, 10.611818, 10.530905, 10.616968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.95, "volume": 106462, "typical_volume": 27639.55, "trend": 10.930333, "fair_value": 15.900705, "relative_strength": -20.081577, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.04675, "energy": 12.772242, "activity_lines": [ 10.9, 10.685455, 10.586095, 10.614473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.9, "volume": 67944, "typical_volume": 29090.4, "trend": 10.850333, "fair_value": 15.728269, "relative_strength": -20.155071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.988237, "energy": 20.904566, "activity_lines": [ 10.943333, 10.750909, 10.629619, 10.612516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }