{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6272f66c-132c-4b5b-b026-6a6f20630d20", "symbol": "XDER", "name": "Xtrackers FTSE Developed Europe Real Estate UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.215, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.708, "architecture_energy": 55.654, "architecture_maturity": 10.435, "architecture_confidence": 52.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.46, "rotation_up": 69.8, "upward_expansion": 63.59, "deceleration": 19.45, "rotation_down": 18.96, "downward_expansion": 19.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.335667, 25.099909, 24.73131, 24.639011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.405001, "trend_reference": 24.654667, "distance_from_trend": 0.030434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.327372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089064, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.542064, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009337, "excess_performance": -0.161555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009337, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.968953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13474, "relative_activity": 0.843079, "balance": 1.968953, "dry_up": 0.959429, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026221, "annualized_volatility": 0.209032, "from_high_reference": -0.053112, "from_low_reference": 0.142825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.654667, "fair_value_reference": 23.327372, "structural_low": 22.23, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.072324, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.004346, "worst_return": -0.097876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003725, "worst_return": -0.12614, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071253, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011589, "worst_return": -0.130916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.857818, "energy": 47.538987, "activity_lines": [ 24.976333, 24.656727, 24.420333, 24.482892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.27, "volume": 4844, "typical_volume": 17563.3, "trend": 24.581833, "fair_value": 23.257115, "relative_strength": -8.44948, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.845284, "energy": 52.713559, "activity_lines": [ 25.131333, 24.812727, 24.514619, 24.530688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.49, "volume": 14947, "typical_volume": 16951.0, "trend": 24.634167, "fair_value": 23.292211, "relative_strength": -7.965663, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.240822, "energy": 57.307087, "activity_lines": [ 25.265667, 24.975727, 24.630238, 24.58928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.405001, "volume": 13474, "typical_volume": 15981.9, "trend": 24.654667, "fair_value": 23.327372, "relative_strength": -10.542064, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.707749, "energy": 55.653858, "activity_lines": [ 25.335667, 25.099909, 24.73131, 24.639011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }