{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6276a93b-c781-45e7-91b9-1ca72c6d58fc", "symbol": "CENN", "name": "Cenntro Electric Group Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.876, "architecture_energy": 60.367, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.427, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.12, "rotation_up": 28.89, "upward_expansion": 11.22, "deceleration": 60.13, "rotation_down": 52.56, "downward_expansion": 84.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.334987, 3.420233, 3.739385, 4.331417 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.42, "trend_reference": 5.380787, "distance_from_trend": -0.364405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.77506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.926884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.204689, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.579956, "excess_performance": -0.767409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.364405, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.926884, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.742047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110735, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.579956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085961, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25486, "relative_activity": 0.017663, "balance": 1.085961, "dry_up": 0.018585, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141698, "annualized_volatility": 0.752797, "from_high_reference": -0.913636, "from_low_reference": 0.114624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.380787, "fair_value_reference": 46.77506, "structural_low": 3.0683, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.107896, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099612, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.250582, "worst_return": -0.674065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.421448, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.50384, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.328082, "worst_return": -0.638005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.790567, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.834227, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.790567, "worst_return": -0.790567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 48.176017, "relative_strength": -80.125577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.52343, "energy": 87.852024, "activity_lines": [ 3.484667, 3.746909, 4.206457, 4.980744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.42, "volume": 31225, "typical_volume": 2242789.4, "trend": 5.948733, "fair_value": 47.817968, "relative_strength": -77.008081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.804885, "energy": 83.593525, "activity_lines": [ 3.436667, 3.658, 4.072638, 4.804477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.3416, "volume": 26928, "typical_volume": 1961466.9, "trend": 5.76932, "fair_value": 47.464981, "relative_strength": -75.820842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.530998, "energy": 81.937777, "activity_lines": [ 3.4032, 3.566291, 3.948495, 4.636275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2, "volume": 23625, "typical_volume": 1814768.75, "trend": 5.575987, "fair_value": 47.116438, "relative_strength": -75.851505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.754928, "energy": 82.434452, "activity_lines": [ 3.320427, 3.464444, 3.825783, 4.470513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.42, "volume": 25486, "typical_volume": 1442896.7, "trend": 5.380787, "fair_value": 46.77506, "relative_strength": -74.204689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.875598, "energy": 60.367284, "activity_lines": [ 3.334987, 3.420233, 3.739385, 4.331417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }