{ "ticker": { "uuid": "627c5b53-b679-45c2-b163-2ebedaf0a3f5", "symbol": "ZPH", "name": "BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.845, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.539, "architecture_energy": 76.728, "architecture_maturity": 7.61, "architecture_confidence": 65.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.76, "rotation_up": 77.91, "upward_expansion": 91.3, "deceleration": 42.15, "rotation_down": 10.05, "downward_expansion": 15.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.88546, 13.76527, 13.701796, 13.627344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.18, "trend_reference": 13.56781, "distance_from_trend": 0.045121, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.643532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.730554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038506, "excess_performance": -0.081916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038506, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.562044, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26500, "relative_activity": 1.588729, "balance": 8.562044, "dry_up": 0.915767, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01576, "annualized_volatility": 0.089397, "from_high_reference": -0.001057, "from_low_reference": 0.104693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.56781, "fair_value_reference": 12.643532, "structural_low": 12.919568, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.008892, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.003195, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.060668, "worst_return": -0.066058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.036028, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.01076, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.054606, "worst_return": -0.022281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031109, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05569, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.082172, "worst_return": 0.006292, "sufficient": 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13.561674, 13.540401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.690605, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 20050.0, "trend": 13.546469, "fair_value": 12.577119, "relative_strength": -8.601445, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.240454, "energy": 21.266415, "activity_lines": [ 13.592981, 13.629633, 13.580054, 13.54988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.73026, "volume": 16000, "typical_volume": 18070.0, "trend": 13.549626, "fair_value": 12.593099, "relative_strength": -7.874281, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.980708, "energy": 19.659691, "activity_lines": [ 13.640881, 13.643942, 13.601163, 13.561737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.73026, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 16505.0, "trend": 13.549934, "fair_value": 12.608546, "relative_strength": -7.786785, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.811624, "energy": 41.425382, "activity_lines": [ 13.682675, 13.655895, 13.621313, 13.573391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.76, "volume": 9500, "typical_volume": 16055.0, "trend": 13.553787, "fair_value": 12.62462, "relative_strength": -6.842465, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.992105, "energy": 50.480496, "activity_lines": [ 13.726955, 13.672151, 13.642731, 13.586944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.18, "volume": 26500, "typical_volume": 16680.0, "trend": 13.56781, "fair_value": 12.643532, "relative_strength": -6.730554, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.539092, "energy": 76.728294, "activity_lines": [ 13.88546, 13.76527, 13.701796, 13.627344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }