{ "ticker": { "uuid": "627ce0b9-ecab-423d-a5c0-5cb957671780", "symbol": "MSTR", "name": "MicroStrategy Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.499, "architecture_energy": 49.044, "architecture_maturity": 44.013, "architecture_confidence": 95.482, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.08, "rotation_up": 22.46, "upward_expansion": 7.44, "deceleration": 52.45, "rotation_down": 57.68, "downward_expansion": 83.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.501333, 97.160545, 117.079714, 124.723204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.01, "trend_reference": 133.747333, "distance_from_trend": -0.252247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 197.542987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.49373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.016729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258801, "excess_performance": -0.446254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.49373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.476889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.540167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258801, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81942274, "relative_activity": 0.87031, "balance": 0.608774, "dry_up": 0.825248, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214096, "annualized_volatility": 0.820351, "from_high_reference": -0.75864, "from_low_reference": 0.222467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133.747333, "fair_value_reference": 197.542987, "structural_low": 81.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.078972, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.090548, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.824963, "worst_return": -0.410198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.061327, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.030682, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.538231, "worst_return": -0.523631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.197213, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147428, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.114855, "worst_return": -0.571663, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.24343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.243285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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[ 95.501333, 97.160545, 117.079714, 124.723204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }