{ "ticker": { "uuid": "627eb56f-4979-4f32-b2cb-9e5cf593f829", "symbol": "AIR", "name": "Air New Zealand Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.179, "architecture_energy": 37.076, "architecture_maturity": 59.523, "architecture_confidence": 84.592, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.63, "rotation_up": 15.52, "upward_expansion": 3.59, "deceleration": 51.01, "rotation_down": 55.27, "downward_expansion": 74.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.423667, 0.430545, 0.431429, 0.441882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.425, "trend_reference": 0.468667, "distance_from_trend": -0.093172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.550989, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.191109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.26087, "excess_performance": -0.289143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102744, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025169, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027459, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.297272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4042094, "relative_activity": 0.804056, "balance": 1.297272, "dry_up": 0.712328, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065158, "annualized_volatility": 0.361685, "from_high_reference": -0.325397, "from_low_reference": 0.0625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.468667, "fair_value_reference": 0.550989, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.008588, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.010599, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.08871, "worst_return": -0.252174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.076783, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.097354, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.252252, "worst_return": -0.36204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.062174, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.021097, "worst_return": -0.201113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 0.55397, "relative_strength": -20.128073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.908047, "energy": 26.473819, "activity_lines": [ 0.432, 0.436182, 0.433976, 0.449226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.415, "volume": 4062992, "typical_volume": 6671274.95, "trend": 0.474167, "fair_value": 0.552447, "relative_strength": -22.856693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.06821, "energy": 37.296365, "activity_lines": [ 0.425333, 0.432364, 0.432143, 0.445054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.425, "volume": 4042094, "typical_volume": 5027133.05, "trend": 0.468667, "fair_value": 0.550989, "relative_strength": -21.191109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.178716, "energy": 37.075891, "activity_lines": [ 0.423667, 0.430545, 0.431429, 0.441882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }