{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6280410c-9930-4d4b-bf1d-01f79b3b38e7", "symbol": "105190", "name": "KIMC KINDEX200 Securities Exchange Traded Investment Trust", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.568, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.409, "architecture_energy": 29.113, "architecture_maturity": 63.962, "architecture_confidence": 78.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.37, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 43.0, "deceleration": 87.84, "rotation_down": 53.46, "downward_expansion": 39.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 104943.858334, 114854.416051, 117620.555692, 111508.369809 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 98380.0, "trend_reference": 102162.94349, "distance_from_trend": -0.037029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50072.734563, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.964742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.107585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.308594, "excess_performance": 0.078766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.260428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.964742, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.768513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061076, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.308594, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2595134, "relative_activity": 1.372262, "balance": 0.493942, "dry_up": 1.449811, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156311, "annualized_volatility": 0.516248, "from_high_reference": -0.357099, "from_low_reference": 1.362056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102162.94349, "fair_value_reference": 50072.734563, "structural_low": 74593.114168, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042786, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311149, "worst_return": -0.013462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074759, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015012, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.364323, "worst_return": 0.006663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.079981, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113016, "worst_return": 0.046946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001147, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087193, "active": 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115380.485417, 123672.302131, 119400.257143, 111276.975966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106000.0, "volume": 3734346, "typical_volume": 1908900.4, "trend": 101119.994271, "fair_value": 49649.910595, "relative_strength": 8.808329, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.241411, "energy": 23.67462, "activity_lines": [ 110373.027604, 119793.359091, 118930.222396, 111685.143633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98380.0, "volume": 2595134, "typical_volume": 1891136.1, "trend": 102162.94349, "fair_value": 50072.734563, "relative_strength": 6.107585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.409277, "energy": 29.112665, "activity_lines": [ 104943.858334, 114854.416051, 117620.555692, 111508.369809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }