{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6282698a-f463-4894-88e0-37e579e1e663", "symbol": "CG", "name": "Centerra Gold Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.19, "architecture_energy": 34.949, "architecture_maturity": 19.805, "architecture_confidence": 70.021, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.7, "rotation_up": 59.06, "upward_expansion": 43.32, "deceleration": 27.29, "rotation_down": 21.35, "downward_expansion": 22.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.230667, 24.211818, 23.93305, 24.095264 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.629999, "trend_reference": 24.235923, "distance_from_trend": 0.222565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.391859, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.391086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.934995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.258017, "excess_performance": 0.137596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.222565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072888, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.391086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.28935, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.258017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2803900, "relative_activity": 0.94887, "balance": 0.94124, "dry_up": 1.147263, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08374, "annualized_volatility": 0.587478, "from_high_reference": -0.011015, "from_low_reference": 2.257565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.235923, "fair_value_reference": 12.391859, "structural_low": 20.780001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000346, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041262, "worst_return": -0.066064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.126619, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242311, "worst_return": 0.010927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.083074, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126301, "worst_return": 0.039848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 12.143277, "relative_strength": 4.949913, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.498484, "energy": 24.11078, "activity_lines": [ 22.648, 22.772182, 23.335303, 23.70975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.1, "volume": 4018100, "typical_volume": 3188560.0, "trend": 23.957131, "fair_value": 12.250198, "relative_strength": 9.887515, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.028039, "energy": 17.078117, "activity_lines": [ 23.055334, 23.001636, 23.370805, 23.729273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.629999, "volume": 2803900, "typical_volume": 2954990.0, "trend": 24.235923, "fair_value": 12.391859, "relative_strength": 28.934995, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.190356, "energy": 34.949394, "activity_lines": [ 25.230667, 24.211818, 23.93305, 24.095264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }