{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62877d95-7cf6-45a5-ba3f-1283edfdc658", "symbol": "GSCE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Energy & Metals Enhanced Roll", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.831, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.976, "architecture_energy": 24.618, "architecture_maturity": 47.157, "architecture_confidence": 67.79, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.35, "rotation_up": 50.07, "upward_expansion": 54.13, "deceleration": 71.14, "rotation_down": 10.15, "downward_expansion": 20.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.9642, 19.764164, 20.026967, 19.993179 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.986, "trend_reference": 19.701, "distance_from_trend": 0.014466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.453423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.337746, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126353, "excess_performance": -0.044539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060648, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097605, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.257574, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290, "relative_activity": 0.051674, "balance": 1.257574, "dry_up": 0.246655, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025649, "annualized_volatility": 0.189651, "from_high_reference": -0.072791, "from_low_reference": 0.409649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.701, "fair_value_reference": 15.453423, "structural_low": 17.464001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005668, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.055761, "worst_return": -0.106047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051468, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.092322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309244, "worst_return": -0.076647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012769, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.11402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.513782, "worst_return": -0.100986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027705, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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19.5054, "fair_value": 15.373885, "relative_strength": 1.819645, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.736322, "energy": 24.083049, "activity_lines": [ 19.700467, 19.750491, 20.077419, 19.941905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.922001, "volume": 532, "typical_volume": 7189.9, "trend": 19.607867, "fair_value": 15.413449, "relative_strength": -1.716506, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.019345, "energy": 15.129126, "activity_lines": [ 19.847867, 19.740528, 20.046876, 19.968783 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.986, "volume": 290, "typical_volume": 5612.1, "trend": 19.701, "fair_value": 15.453423, "relative_strength": -4.337746, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.975971, "energy": 24.617645, "activity_lines": [ 19.9642, 19.764164, 20.026967, 19.993179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }