{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6287e272-fe62-4310-96ab-08e5c2635237", "symbol": "S500H", "name": "Amundi S&P 500 Screened UCITS ETF - Acc EUR HEDGED", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.107, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.715, "architecture_energy": 61.35, "architecture_maturity": 50.079, "architecture_confidence": 61.936, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.7, "rotation_up": 52.7, "upward_expansion": 80.56, "deceleration": 70.95, "rotation_down": 28.16, "downward_expansion": 9.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.064668, 106.592546, 105.603906, 103.663054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 110.410004, "trend_reference": 101.569, "distance_from_trend": 0.087044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.836259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.065251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112107, "excess_performance": -0.058785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087044, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112107, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.032842, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8755, "relative_activity": 0.346679, "balance": 5.032842, "dry_up": 0.453178, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017571, "annualized_volatility": 0.131638, "from_high_reference": -0.006211, "from_low_reference": 0.228416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.569, "fair_value_reference": 85.836259, "structural_low": 90.379997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.036215, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.036215, "worst_return": -0.036215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.091932, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091932, "worst_return": 0.091932, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.094084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046441, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 61.740002, "volume": 13130, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 60.540001, "volume": 16241, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"typical_volume": 27146.0, "trend": 101.200333, "fair_value": 85.667945, "relative_strength": -5.701388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.508482, "energy": 38.063859, "activity_lines": [ 105.510001, 105.786909, 104.865762, 103.068882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.410004, "volume": 8755, "typical_volume": 25253.9, "trend": 101.569, "fair_value": 85.836259, "relative_strength": -4.065251, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.715404, "energy": 61.350436, "activity_lines": [ 107.064668, 106.592546, 105.603906, 103.663054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }