{ "ticker": { "uuid": "628d333b-6122-49c6-b106-9f4a3db98390", "symbol": "UMDD", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRAPRO MIDCAP400", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.385, "architecture_energy": 41.901, "architecture_maturity": 64.486, "architecture_confidence": 63.402, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.78, "rotation_up": 43.45, "upward_expansion": 73.78, "deceleration": 70.24, "rotation_down": 25.82, "downward_expansion": 5.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.972627, 35.808179, 34.799278, 33.425356 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.9923, "trend_reference": 31.98847, "distance_from_trend": 0.187687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.165055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.509724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.54112, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179785, "excess_performance": 0.05416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.187687, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.509724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165411, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.043734, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29499, "relative_activity": 0.693374, "balance": 1.043734, "dry_up": 0.892349, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071545, "annualized_volatility": 0.409282, "from_high_reference": -0.004916, "from_low_reference": 0.773191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.98847, "fair_value_reference": 25.165055, "structural_low": 23.91, 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30.571286, "fair_value": 24.701327, "relative_strength": 17.145516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.482498, "energy": 65.801751, "activity_lines": [ 35.885096, 34.96412, 33.033382, 31.966293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.3711, "volume": 28459, "typical_volume": 49718.8, "trend": 30.86388, "fair_value": 24.793547, "relative_strength": 13.217118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.635383, "energy": 50.790241, "activity_lines": [ 35.834539, 35.174063, 33.403876, 32.275958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.1434, "volume": 26336, "typical_volume": 47656.65, "trend": 31.150189, "fair_value": 24.880011, "relative_strength": 13.786044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.665938, "energy": 43.193546, "activity_lines": [ 35.576665, 35.287144, 33.738976, 32.552056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.27, "volume": 48995, "typical_volume": 45058.85, "trend": 31.422988, "fair_value": 24.965547, "relative_strength": 14.429839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.150226, "energy": 37.691158, "activity_lines": [ 35.422087, 35.398173, 34.068944, 32.817851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.54, "volume": 47027, "typical_volume": 43619.8, "trend": 31.692975, "fair_value": 25.052536, "relative_strength": 10.337073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.094278, "energy": 27.282673, "activity_lines": [ 35.06164, 35.304284, 34.291008, 33.018948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.9923, "volume": 29499, "typical_volume": 42544.15, "trend": 31.98847, "fair_value": 25.165055, "relative_strength": 16.54112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.385151, "energy": 41.901207, "activity_lines": [ 35.972627, 35.808179, 34.799278, 33.425356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }