{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6291b368-5906-41fc-b8da-0168c3b248be", "symbol": "SHC", "name": "Sotera Health Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.941, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.692, "architecture_energy": 62.412, "architecture_maturity": 21.934, "architecture_confidence": 75.937, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.51, "rotation_up": 65.39, "upward_expansion": 84.45, "deceleration": 51.63, "rotation_down": 16.42, "downward_expansion": 11.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.114, 17.773455, 16.973952, 16.531172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.86, "trend_reference": 16.411833, "distance_from_trend": 0.149171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.478974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302578, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.215129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062535, "excess_performance": -0.124918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212582, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002151, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.944183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16101432, "relative_activity": 1.061249, "balance": 0.944183, "dry_up": 1.015314, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058887, "annualized_volatility": 0.373464, "from_high_reference": -0.049874, "from_low_reference": 0.440794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.411833, "fair_value_reference": 14.478974, "structural_low": 13.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011124, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.167927, "worst_return": -0.081185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.082282, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.176111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199697, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028524, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.266588, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.087675, "worst_return": -0.194263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.151951, 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"2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013867, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045816, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.161807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", 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16.039636, 15.652262, 15.897882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.93, "volume": 10738302, "typical_volume": 15229180.0, "trend": 16.356833, "fair_value": 14.485833, "relative_strength": -1.826086, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.994154, "energy": 56.158797, "activity_lines": [ 16.975333, 16.418909, 15.880714, 16.001914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.42, "volume": 14245023, "typical_volume": 15706770.5, "trend": 16.409833, "fair_value": 14.483718, "relative_strength": -1.235632, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.905648, "energy": 68.641422, "activity_lines": [ 17.586, 16.844545, 16.151976, 16.135022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.75, "volume": 14470246, "typical_volume": 15853904.55, "trend": 16.429167, "fair_value": 14.475385, "relative_strength": -1.122467, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.81358, "energy": 66.393596, "activity_lines": [ 17.786667, 17.095273, 16.355, 16.221484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.35, "volume": 15699917, "typical_volume": 15697471.15, "trend": 16.4175, "fair_value": 14.466731, "relative_strength": -2.042526, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.756831, "energy": 62.887829, "activity_lines": [ 17.75, 17.237455, 16.512786, 16.280892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.86, "volume": 15346358, "typical_volume": 15134943.95, "trend": 16.423167, "fair_value": 14.467115, "relative_strength": -0.141103, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.483115, "energy": 53.574208, "activity_lines": [ 17.781333, 17.434545, 16.706333, 16.373957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.86, "volume": 16101432, "typical_volume": 15172149.5, "trend": 16.411833, "fair_value": 14.478974, "relative_strength": 0.215129, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.691531, "energy": 62.411874, "activity_lines": [ 18.114, 17.773455, 16.973952, 16.531172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }