{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62a225ac-15e2-4f4c-b0ef-65f7979797a0", "symbol": "SPMC", "name": "Sound Point Meridian Capital, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 82.674, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.695, "architecture_energy": 13.712, "architecture_maturity": 20.876, "architecture_confidence": 70.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.15, "rotation_up": 41.43, "upward_expansion": 27.4, "deceleration": 40.48, "rotation_down": 24.56, "downward_expansion": 25.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.381942, 10.258403, 10.317197, 10.16621 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.69, "trend_reference": 10.271424, "distance_from_trend": 0.040752, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.405288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.510828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.109255, "excess_performance": -0.23488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012624, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147245, "relative_activity": 1.02017, "balance": 0.862302, "dry_up": 0.768603, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063519, "annualized_volatility": 0.456209, "from_high_reference": -0.307564, "from_low_reference": 0.348661 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.271424, "fair_value_reference": 13.405288, "structural_low": 7.926378, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.055605, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052584, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.055605, "worst_return": 0.055605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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10.207626, 10.211199, 10.147328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.36, "volume": 56655, "typical_volume": 147417.0, "trend": 10.348893, "fair_value": 13.429531, "relative_strength": -20.139606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.77628, "energy": 10.510591, "activity_lines": [ 10.192835, 10.199519, 10.252885, 10.144204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.69, "volume": 147245, "typical_volume": 144333.85, "trend": 10.271424, "fair_value": 13.405288, "relative_strength": -19.510828, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.695056, "energy": 13.711976, "activity_lines": [ 10.381942, 10.258403, 10.317197, 10.16621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }