{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62af599f-01ea-4d45-a3e7-04d6e12a809e", "symbol": "DSY2", "name": "Dassault Syst\u00e8mes SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 55.047, "architecture_energy": 64.057, "architecture_maturity": 18.59, "architecture_confidence": 58.328, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.96, "rotation_up": 69.73, "upward_expansion": 57.1, "deceleration": 27.61, "rotation_down": 18.98, "downward_expansion": 22.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.273334, 19.343091, 19.046412, 18.866249 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.120001, "trend_reference": 19.112141, "distance_from_trend": 0.15738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.097873, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.791201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019001, "excess_performance": -0.155246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15738, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0741, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288697, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112001, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019001, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226748, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.226748, "dry_up": 2.705759, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059531, "annualized_volatility": 0.510343, "from_high_reference": -0.258173, "from_low_reference": 0.392856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.112141, "fair_value_reference": 31.097873, "structural_low": 15.881034, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013829, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003659, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.09991, "worst_return": -0.131853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086349, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081587, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.079208, "worst_return": -0.204713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.099706, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01398, "worst_return": -0.185432, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 45.168449, "activity_lines": [ 17.964666, 18.422172, 18.448564, 18.816752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.24, "volume": 3068, "typical_volume": 1931.35, "trend": 19.607618, "fair_value": 31.558876, "relative_strength": -35.278853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.888038, "energy": 38.56676, "activity_lines": [ 18.013666, 18.332552, 18.444885, 18.717984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.825001, "volume": 5520, "typical_volume": 1908.5, "trend": 19.422287, "fair_value": 31.418165, "relative_strength": -34.31299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.097292, "energy": 31.127269, "activity_lines": [ 18.026, 18.175716, 18.396815, 18.602977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.889999, "volume": 23161, "typical_volume": 2707.85, "trend": 19.30546, "fair_value": 31.305258, "relative_strength": -26.650614, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.069003, "energy": 8.736039, "activity_lines": [ 18.687, 18.426804, 18.546328, 18.633152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.985001, "volume": 841, "typical_volume": 2748.8, "trend": 19.186537, "fair_value": 31.190527, "relative_strength": -25.262202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.879249, "energy": 21.400644, "activity_lines": [ 19.196334, 18.689818, 18.698226, 18.676993 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.120001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2727.7, "trend": 19.112141, "fair_value": 31.097873, "relative_strength": -18.791201, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.046871, "energy": 64.056844, "activity_lines": [ 20.273334, 19.343091, 19.046412, 18.866249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }