{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62af60c1-ed68-4489-9dad-7c5fdc6c364f", "symbol": "300839", "name": "Ningbo Bohui Chemical Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.234, "architecture_energy": 76.418, "architecture_maturity": 18.246, "architecture_confidence": 85.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 9.37, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 38.31, "rotation_down": 76.86, "downward_expansion": 93.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.420667, 11.170364, 13.016429, 13.415355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.81, "trend_reference": 13.564667, "distance_from_trend": -0.203077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.221218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057604, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.049841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113934, "excess_performance": -0.121334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057604, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.644826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113934, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32179966, "relative_activity": 0.686598, "balance": 0.507318, "dry_up": 0.886157, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158329, "annualized_volatility": 0.54926, "from_high_reference": -0.478785, "from_low_reference": 0.159871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.564667, "fair_value_reference": 10.221218, "structural_low": 9.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.02844, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.021308, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.203098, "worst_return": -0.25656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.082061, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.017803, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.44486, "worst_return": -0.366114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.166806, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033756, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.37757, "worst_return": -0.443867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.194182, 15.092572, 14.568903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.94, "volume": 5961600, "typical_volume": 59568817.05, "trend": 13.832667, "fair_value": 10.284487, "relative_strength": -23.901224, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.087613, "energy": 42.030961, "activity_lines": [ 12.970667, 14.518182, 14.831619, 14.445032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.5, "volume": 41180032, "typical_volume": 57966906.2, "trend": 13.8, "fair_value": 10.276154, "relative_strength": -23.700534, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.603819, "energy": 61.491567, "activity_lines": [ 12.269333, 13.804364, 14.530952, 14.294538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.43, "volume": 46838464, "typical_volume": 58322599.85, "trend": 13.743, "fair_value": 10.257821, "relative_strength": -23.66835, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.690436, "energy": 69.436741, "activity_lines": [ 11.466, 12.953455, 14.139905, 14.077118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.94, "volume": 49878313, "typical_volume": 51874534.2, "trend": 13.678667, "fair_value": 10.244936, "relative_strength": -26.787554, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.277015, "energy": 74.21694, "activity_lines": [ 10.783333, 12.139091, 13.716905, 13.831763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.02, "volume": 37235355, "typical_volume": 48176976.45, "trend": 13.605667, "fair_value": 10.227949, "relative_strength": -24.446876, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.566793, "energy": 80.134786, "activity_lines": [ 10.406, 11.506727, 13.320476, 13.59572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.81, "volume": 32179966, "typical_volume": 46868719.6, "trend": 13.564667, "fair_value": 10.221218, "relative_strength": -22.049841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.234298, "energy": 76.417782, "activity_lines": [ 10.420667, 11.170364, 13.016429, 13.415355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }