{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62b81d2b-d4dc-4d49-98e0-46692bd16dda", "symbol": "^TASI.SR", "name": "Tadawul All Share Index", "exchange": "INDEXES", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.685, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.699, "architecture_energy": 63.983, "architecture_maturity": 3.164, "architecture_confidence": 90.821, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.7, "rotation_up": 11.94, "upward_expansion": 14.29, "deceleration": 38.34, "rotation_down": 66.3, "downward_expansion": 87.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 10741.012565, 10801.778906, 10919.626042, 10963.157132 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10832.599609, "trend_reference": 10992.556055, "distance_from_trend": -0.014551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11494.267885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.587998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048276, "excess_performance": -0.171705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.7e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1241148764, "relative_activity": 1.075047, "balance": 0.60897, "dry_up": 0.865655, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017803, "annualized_volatility": 0.107642, "from_high_reference": -0.080556, "from_low_reference": 0.062662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10992.556055, "fair_value_reference": 11494.267885, "structural_low": 10193.830078, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009098, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.02111, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.099033, "worst_return": -0.066092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021519, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.097751, "worst_return": -0.069344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018507, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.088147, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.131853, 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10902.375018, 11000.407989, 11010.095852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10793.120117, "volume": 833021428, "typical_volume": 1178630181.4, "trend": 10981.2764, "fair_value": 11507.410519, "relative_strength": -9.61475, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.831321, "energy": 58.505211, "activity_lines": [ 10790.613477, 10873.909197, 10978.919424, 10998.69405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10580.959961, "volume": 966735053, "typical_volume": 1159008134.05, "trend": 10983.105404, "fair_value": 11500.186736, "relative_strength": -12.016501, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.969048, "energy": 80.756086, "activity_lines": [ 10712.130729, 10811.199716, 10936.824749, 10972.867183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10832.599609, "volume": 1241148764, "typical_volume": 1154506377.25, "trend": 10992.556055, "fair_value": 11494.267885, "relative_strength": -12.587998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.699433, "energy": 63.982807, "activity_lines": [ 10741.012565, 10801.778906, 10919.626042, 10963.157132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }