{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62c0d3b6-a91d-4781-8858-c4fe190e3321", "symbol": "SPQB", "name": "Global X S&P 500 Quarterly Buffer UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.761, "architecture_energy": 71.109, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.3, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 61.18, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 29.65, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.173066, 20.151291, 19.927624, 19.67946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.309999, "trend_reference": 19.353633, "distance_from_trend": 0.049415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.689071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.115866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096652, "excess_performance": -0.07424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027632, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.913433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1065, "relative_activity": 1.504769, "balance": 2.913433, "dry_up": 1.226775, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008173, "annualized_volatility": 0.052982, "from_high_reference": -0.000984, "from_low_reference": 0.140371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.353633, "fair_value_reference": 17.689071, "structural_low": 18.384001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.012962, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.012231, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.035778, "worst_return": -0.058117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023919, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.022064, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.074811, "worst_return": -0.142529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031051, "worst_return": -0.079632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1459.5, "trend": 19.262233, "fair_value": 17.627417, "relative_strength": -5.562064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.866794, "energy": 70.575619, "activity_lines": [ 20.218667, 20.119764, 19.826167, 19.573125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.903999, "volume": 501, "typical_volume": 1269.1, "trend": 19.303567, "fair_value": 17.656942, "relative_strength": -7.512127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.777559, "energy": 66.929533, "activity_lines": [ 20.118333, 20.101854, 19.859838, 19.614529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.309999, "volume": 1065, "typical_volume": 707.75, "trend": 19.353633, "fair_value": 17.689071, "relative_strength": -8.115866, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.760863, "energy": 71.109006, "activity_lines": [ 20.173066, 20.151291, 19.927624, 19.67946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }