{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62c5e41a-6552-43ca-b54a-c1633f463917", "symbol": "LPH", "name": "Ladprao General Hospital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.262, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.165, "architecture_energy": 15.595, "architecture_maturity": 24.559, "architecture_confidence": 74.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.21, "rotation_up": 32.57, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 40.22, "rotation_down": 21.69, "downward_expansion": 50.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.601333, 3.585818, 3.608331, 3.615389 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.62, "trend_reference": 3.619234, "distance_from_trend": 0.000212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.930974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.545606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010572, "excess_performance": -0.181753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005237, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.403706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 457800, "relative_activity": 1.501377, "balance": 0.403706, "dry_up": 1.368556, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023374, "annualized_volatility": 0.0811, "from_high_reference": -0.123291, "from_low_reference": 0.053031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.619234, "fair_value_reference": 3.930974, "structural_low": 3.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.008677, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.002216, "regime_survival": 0.541667, "best_return": 0.083477, "worst_return": -0.056591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017836, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.031823, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.026708, "worst_return": -0.050839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022874, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.005443, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015945, "worst_return": -0.18898, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.329735, "energy": 17.679267, "activity_lines": [ 3.588, 3.582909, 3.612397, 3.618131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.58, "volume": 192700, "typical_volume": 292705.0, "trend": 3.620567, "fair_value": 3.937186, "relative_strength": -16.667179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.867387, "energy": 15.718404, "activity_lines": [ 3.590667, 3.579636, 3.608362, 3.615426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.62, "volume": 457800, "typical_volume": 304920.0, "trend": 3.619234, "fair_value": 3.930974, "relative_strength": -14.545606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.164754, "energy": 15.594867, "activity_lines": [ 3.601333, 3.585818, 3.608331, 3.615389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }