{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62c96ea0-e134-4839-b1e1-3f439530b488", "symbol": "NR7", "name": "Raffles Education Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.336, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.965, "architecture_energy": 40.866, "architecture_maturity": 24.337, "architecture_confidence": 94.798, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.22, "rotation_up": 21.7, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 49.35, "downward_expansion": 73.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.122309, 0.126095, 0.128779 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.113, "trend_reference": 0.133515, "distance_from_trend": -0.153651, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.067712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.668824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.983543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186377, "excess_performance": -0.341212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153651, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.668824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.714648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.656186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64551, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7704400, "relative_activity": 0.294219, "balance": 0.64551, "dry_up": 0.888172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091899, "annualized_volatility": 0.474213, "from_high_reference": -0.374471, "from_low_reference": 1.529322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.133515, "fair_value_reference": 0.067712, "structural_low": 0.107, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.006995, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.131605, "worst_return": -0.252628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012497, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041665, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.102566, "worst_return": -0.346943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117641, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.160263, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.094337, "worst_return": -0.295924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.117641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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0.133, "volume": 32951300, "typical_volume": 28777265.0, "trend": 0.134883, "fair_value": 0.067067, "relative_strength": 3.581787, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.991666, "energy": 17.103673, "activity_lines": [ 0.129267, 0.126818, 0.129248, 0.131487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.114, "volume": 35669500, "typical_volume": 27660260.0, "trend": 0.134086, "fair_value": 0.06738, "relative_strength": -12.578323, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.3069, "energy": 25.396331, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.124455, 0.127676, 0.13014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.113, "volume": 7704400, "typical_volume": 26185975.0, "trend": 0.133515, "fair_value": 0.067712, "relative_strength": -14.983543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.965445, "energy": 40.865825, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.122309, 0.126095, 0.128779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }