{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62c9f2cb-13f0-40df-b3b1-b72f7a6e2499", "symbol": "GHYB", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST ACCESS HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.914, "architecture_energy": 18.819, "architecture_maturity": 15.81, "architecture_confidence": 75.235, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.06, "rotation_up": 29.52, "upward_expansion": 52.67, "deceleration": 86.83, "rotation_down": 27.37, "downward_expansion": 18.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.386685, 44.409428, 44.400963, 44.337795 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 44.6, "trend_reference": 44.298321, "distance_from_trend": 0.00681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.668622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.79004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004723, "excess_performance": -0.120902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00681, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060956, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41414, "relative_activity": 0.762433, "balance": 1.060956, "dry_up": 0.933251, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006561, "annualized_volatility": 0.040736, "from_high_reference": -0.003168, "from_low_reference": 0.045055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.298321, "fair_value_reference": 40.668622, "structural_low": 43.292563, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000616, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.017349, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.029338, "worst_return": -0.038813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005622, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013057, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069773, "worst_return": -0.030246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.000127, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026625, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085782, "worst_return": -0.09632, "sufficient": 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44.296566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 44.44814, "volume": 37034, "typical_volume": 60008.7, "trend": 44.257193, "fair_value": 40.379513, "relative_strength": -7.948638, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.660114, "energy": 45.687819, "activity_lines": [ 44.507003, 44.450905, 44.351712, 44.309829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.372462, "volume": 35946, "typical_volume": 57898.25, "trend": 44.271885, "fair_value": 40.437656, "relative_strength": -9.075431, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.160559, "energy": 35.321176, "activity_lines": [ 44.469021, 44.445017, 44.362574, 44.317266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.426958, "volume": 42918, "typical_volume": 57866.8, "trend": 44.285489, "fair_value": 40.495189, "relative_strength": -7.297763, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.331715, "energy": 20.489237, "activity_lines": [ 44.444612, 44.448494, 44.379441, 44.32727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.118977, "volume": 66554, "typical_volume": 52850.55, "trend": 44.285117, "fair_value": 40.55097, "relative_strength": -7.177033, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.751048, "energy": 11.698654, "activity_lines": [ 44.324936, 44.395573, 44.366708, 44.316528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.304243, "volume": 51884, "typical_volume": 53568.4, "trend": 44.289486, "fair_value": 40.608849, "relative_strength": -7.523553, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.312767, "energy": 17.229878, "activity_lines": [ 44.298071, 44.375688, 44.371334, 44.317762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.6, "volume": 41414, "typical_volume": 54318.2, "trend": 44.298321, "fair_value": 40.668622, "relative_strength": -9.79004, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.914466, "energy": 18.818617, "activity_lines": [ 44.386685, 44.409428, 44.400963, 44.337795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }