{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "62cb4a9c-d231-4dae-8368-434073f9f81b",
    "symbol": "DEF",
    "name": "DEFAMA Deutsche Fachmarkt AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.55,
    "architecture_energy": 51.821,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.265,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.05,
        "rotation_up": 27.38,
        "upward_expansion": 8.84,
        "deceleration": 60.94,
        "rotation_down": 50.49,
        "downward_expansion": 82.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        22.671515,
        22.772744,
        23.303208,
        23.934508
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 22.9,
    "trend_reference": 24.939576,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.081781,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 25.599507,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105452,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.698972,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.176259,
    "excess_performance": -0.240899,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.081781,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06884,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.105452,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051349,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.20699,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.066159,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.176259,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.628805,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8219,
      "relative_activity": 1.163036,
      "balance": 0.628805,
      "dry_up": 1.303622,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034028,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.165248,
      "from_high_reference": -0.279874,
      "from_low_reference": 0.036199
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.939576,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.599507,
      "structural_low": 22.1,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.003597,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010313,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.102804,
        "worst_return": -0.094203,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.022089,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.104894,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.076923,
        "worst_return": -0.111511,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.016596,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.037785,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.179113,
        "worst_return": -0.194245,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.025267,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.19361,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.250537,
        "worst_return": -0.071813,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-03-31",
        "end": "2023-04-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.058036,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-05-05",
        "end": "2023-07-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-03-22",
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        "return": -0.008265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
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        "return": -0.044118,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.007194,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "energy": 87.831298,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 25.830485,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -20.125071,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 91.981898,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 9225,
        "typical_volume": 6243.4,
        "trend": 25.482909,
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        "relative_strength": -16.104219,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.325188,
        "energy": 78.296638,
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          22.888425,
          23.142959,
          23.747312,
          24.463244
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.4,
        "volume": 12129,
        "typical_volume": 6663.35,
        "trend": 25.296242,
        "fair_value": 25.578646,
        "relative_strength": -19.495554,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -75.526108,
        "energy": 65.015245,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.712667,
          22.948645,
          23.564039,
          24.264346
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.4,
        "volume": 7277,
        "typical_volume": 6915.2,
        "trend": 25.116242,
        "fair_value": 25.587167,
        "relative_strength": -20.731092,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.086011,
        "energy": 61.555519,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.58697,
          22.796149,
          23.399814,
          24.077492
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 22.9,
        "volume": 8219,
        "typical_volume": 7066.85,
        "trend": 24.939576,
        "fair_value": 25.599507,
        "relative_strength": -20.698972,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.550438,
        "energy": 51.820516,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.671515,
          22.772744,
          23.303208,
          23.934508
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}