{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62cc3281-d49d-4435-b29a-4e7884471268", "symbol": "CDL", "name": "Cloudbreak Discovery Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.697, "architecture_energy": 46.307, "architecture_maturity": 35.66, "architecture_confidence": 89.085, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.36, "rotation_up": 12.11, "upward_expansion": 8.14, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 66.29, "downward_expansion": 86.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004459, 0.004829, 0.005319, 0.005324 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00425, "trend_reference": 0.005454, "distance_from_trend": -0.220755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.855042, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227273, "excess_performance": -0.278508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132726, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.848953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.742635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23780163, "relative_activity": 0.374934, "balance": 0.676047, "dry_up": 0.292325, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.40724, "annualized_volatility": 0.951881, "from_high_reference": -0.696429, "from_low_reference": 2.269231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005454, "fair_value_reference": 0.003972, "structural_low": 0.0035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.114379, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.122546, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.16, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.180947, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.336471, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.385983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.32, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.771429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.371429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 41885094, "typical_volume": 69129355.95, "trend": 0.005849, "fair_value": 0.003993, "relative_strength": -29.605957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.164587, "energy": 19.919855, "activity_lines": [ 0.00529, 0.005795, 0.005653, 0.00564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 7661699, "typical_volume": 67367886.35, "trend": 0.005795, "fair_value": 0.003983, "relative_strength": -30.793053, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.73145, "energy": 26.480994, "activity_lines": [ 0.004953, 0.005469, 0.005566, 0.005553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00471, "volume": 15968973, "typical_volume": 65298653.05, "trend": 0.005679, "fair_value": 0.003976, "relative_strength": -29.065117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.038009, "energy": 32.517507, "activity_lines": [ 0.004787, 0.005238, 0.005504, 0.005483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 26751863, "typical_volume": 65427355.05, "trend": 0.005546, "fair_value": 0.003975, "relative_strength": -33.541378, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.089598, "energy": 38.021416, "activity_lines": [ 0.004623, 0.005033, 0.005423, 0.005407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00425, "volume": 23780163, "typical_volume": 63424971.3, "trend": 0.005454, "fair_value": 0.003972, "relative_strength": -37.855042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.697037, "energy": 46.307009, "activity_lines": [ 0.004459, 0.004829, 0.005319, 0.005324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }