{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62d4a118-c684-4de3-ac16-6c2868a0272c", "symbol": "300722", "name": "Jiangxi Xinyu Guoke Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.901, "architecture_energy": 55.62, "architecture_maturity": 70.471, "architecture_confidence": 94.105, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 22.45, "upward_expansion": 9.02, "deceleration": 56.37, "rotation_down": 55.53, "downward_expansion": 80.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.456, 21.97257, 23.568142, 25.282658 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.809999, "trend_reference": 27.834154, "distance_from_trend": -0.21643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.144655, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.072038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327682, "excess_performance": -0.335082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.21643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.31072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.741371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14535857, "relative_activity": 0.961071, "balance": 0.741371, "dry_up": 1.367729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106047, "annualized_volatility": 0.36924, "from_high_reference": -0.480467, "from_low_reference": 0.164442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.834154, "fair_value_reference": 26.144655, "structural_low": 18.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.026414, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.027001, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.394098, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033193, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.05153, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.213046, "worst_return": -0.233276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061759, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195971, "worst_return": -0.242982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-79.027643, "energy": 64.940638, "activity_lines": [ 22.211333, 22.949281, 24.924542, 26.715419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.68, "volume": 24625371, "typical_volume": 15216214.35, "trend": 28.763488, "fair_value": 26.133124, "relative_strength": -34.182575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.286012, "energy": 64.058908, "activity_lines": [ 21.614, 22.404533, 24.35452, 26.168119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.52, "volume": 20227269, "typical_volume": 15101769.7, "trend": 28.291154, "fair_value": 26.134497, "relative_strength": -29.457784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.499265, "energy": 57.322644, "activity_lines": [ 21.466667, 22.125507, 23.924879, 25.700797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.809999, "volume": 14535857, "typical_volume": 15124645.4, "trend": 27.834154, "fair_value": 26.144655, "relative_strength": -31.072038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.90098, "energy": 55.619784, "activity_lines": [ 21.456, 21.97257, 23.568142, 25.282658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }