{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62d587d7-3705-471a-a943-16acf1eecad9", "symbol": "XZL", "name": "Acrophyte Hospitality Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.916, "architecture_energy": 23.21, "architecture_maturity": 72.853, "architecture_confidence": 55.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.09, "rotation_up": 44.17, "upward_expansion": 33.73, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 14.86, "downward_expansion": 42.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.231667, 0.220673, 0.217938, 0.223604 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.231759, "distance_from_trend": -0.050738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.233192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.249984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134992, "excess_performance": -0.289827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05657, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03522, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8829400, "relative_activity": 6.599447, "balance": 0.70658, "dry_up": 2.589338, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095455, "annualized_volatility": 0.364253, "from_high_reference": -0.297181, "from_low_reference": 0.271676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.231759, "fair_value_reference": 0.233192, "structural_low": 0.173, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.010638, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.387097, "median_excess_return": -0.017508, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.234045, "worst_return": -0.189657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01861, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.088542, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.155914, "worst_return": -0.191489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055806, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.143389, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030555, "worst_return": -0.25532, 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[ 0.197467, 0.201127, 0.216573, 0.2254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.21, "volume": 2345900, "typical_volume": 808885.0, "trend": 0.234018, "fair_value": 0.233916, "relative_strength": -28.260163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.217807, "energy": 41.169824, "activity_lines": [ 0.201667, 0.201455, 0.214902, 0.223777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.22, "volume": 1527100, "typical_volume": 849135.0, "trend": 0.233036, "fair_value": 0.233643, "relative_strength": -24.705246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.391374, "energy": 25.129448, "activity_lines": [ 0.208533, 0.204327, 0.214371, 0.222872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.235, "volume": 1992000, "typical_volume": 890100.0, "trend": 0.232718, "fair_value": 0.233514, "relative_strength": -20.032222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.401061, "energy": 18.595991, "activity_lines": [ 0.219, 0.210018, 0.21541, 0.222999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.255, "volume": 1508600, "typical_volume": 928380.0, "trend": 0.232903, "fair_value": 0.233465, "relative_strength": -13.156106, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.324582, "energy": 38.51292, "activity_lines": [ 0.233, 0.218982, 0.218376, 0.224436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 8829400, "typical_volume": 1337900.0, "trend": 0.231759, "fair_value": 0.233192, "relative_strength": -25.249984, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.915929, "energy": 23.209699, "activity_lines": [ 0.231667, 0.220673, 0.217938, 0.223604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }