{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62e0ca54-f7e3-416f-9ea5-bfd637e60ee3", "symbol": "EX35", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.605, "architecture_energy": 60.038, "architecture_maturity": 7.933, "architecture_confidence": 66.501, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.9, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 20.85, "deceleration": 44.8, "rotation_down": 71.33, "downward_expansion": 62.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.351333, 27.814727, 28.685524, 28.776656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.809999, "trend_reference": 28.4985, "distance_from_trend": -0.024159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.921365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.139184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024309, "excess_performance": -0.149937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213278, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038171, "annualized_volatility": 0.194283, "from_high_reference": -0.126433, "from_low_reference": 0.183656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.4985, "fair_value_reference": 22.921365, "structural_low": 26.674999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019661, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.003834, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.088487, "worst_return": -0.040019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001928, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114379, "worst_return": -0.115537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007847, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.066408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053812, "worst_return": -0.11629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007454, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014144, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020066, 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"direction": -1.363847, "energy": 19.792834, "activity_lines": [ 28.916, 29.613727, 29.540691, 29.029376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.094999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 769.3, "trend": 28.129667, "fair_value": 22.687026, "relative_strength": -13.573564, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.841207, "energy": 31.049566, "activity_lines": [ 28.478, 29.290182, 29.418762, 29.036527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.610001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 769.3, "trend": 28.2445, "fair_value": 22.746487, "relative_strength": -13.103088, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.170795, "energy": 42.823555, "activity_lines": [ 28.033, 28.901727, 29.253667, 29.003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.674999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 708.3, "trend": 28.320833, "fair_value": 22.797814, "relative_strength": -16.830747, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.250751, "energy": 66.056674, "activity_lines": [ 27.497666, 28.381, 29.008619, 28.901742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.969999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 708.3, "trend": 28.398, "fair_value": 22.856904, "relative_strength": -15.524791, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.118873, "energy": 70.663804, "activity_lines": [ 27.223666, 27.979272, 28.80169, 28.814591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.809999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 708.3, "trend": 28.4985, "fair_value": 22.921365, "relative_strength": -15.139184, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.604592, "energy": 60.038338, "activity_lines": [ 27.351333, 27.814727, 28.685524, 28.776656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }