{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "62e38a1f-215e-49ff-b928-f7e55dd69cd6",
    "symbol": "HMXJ",
    "name": "HSBC MSCI Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 80.996,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 82.844,
    "architecture_energy": 92.133,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.942,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.425,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 5.55,
        "rotation_up": 86.28,
        "upward_expansion": 99.78,
        "deceleration": 39.01,
        "rotation_down": 8.43,
        "downward_expansion": 21.78
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.3668,
        15.145055,
        14.939752,
        14.808276
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 15.524,
    "trend_reference": 14.620829,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.061773,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.543353,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237628,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.371377,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.096947,
    "excess_performance": -0.073944,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061773,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039474,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.237628,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028978,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053714,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010528,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.096947,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.676084,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 104666,
      "relative_activity": 2.023194,
      "balance": 7.676084,
      "dry_up": 1.427468,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01658,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.117629,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008811,
      "from_low_reference": 0.210202
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.620829,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.543353,
      "structural_low": 13.812,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 30,
        "median_return": -0.002228,
        "positive_rate": 0.433333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.433333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008219,
        "regime_survival": 0.566667,
        "best_return": 0.082115,
        "worst_return": -0.057956,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.025275,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014808,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.084824,
        "worst_return": -0.090762,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.043952,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.049022,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.106676,
        "worst_return": -0.086126,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.053672,
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        "best_return": 0.160924,
        "worst_return": -0.068717,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 12.42689,
        "relative_strength": -7.066381,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 56029.25,
        "trend": 14.427532,
        "fair_value": 12.454665,
        "relative_strength": -4.903236,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.308092,
        "energy": 69.951554,
        "activity_lines": [
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          14.726133,
          14.629545
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.32,
        "volume": 46825,
        "typical_volume": 52573.95,
        "trend": 14.491041,
        "fair_value": 12.481951,
        "relative_strength": -3.488974,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.154001,
        "energy": 82.32384,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.402,
        "volume": 55073,
        "typical_volume": 49344.05,
        "trend": 14.557087,
        "fair_value": 12.511717,
        "relative_strength": -3.49691,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.917936,
        "energy": 86.103468,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.235867,
          15.028982,
          14.862876,
          14.745895
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.524,
        "volume": 104666,
        "typical_volume": 51733.05,
        "trend": 14.620829,
        "fair_value": 12.543353,
        "relative_strength": -5.371377,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.843654,
        "energy": 92.133061,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}