{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62f031bc-0d3d-4184-9ded-01990ee89eec", "symbol": "SIMPLEXINF", "name": "Simplex Infrastructures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.97, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.204, "architecture_energy": 24.372, "architecture_maturity": 54.535, "architecture_confidence": 84.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.77, "rotation_up": 25.68, "upward_expansion": 57.94, "deceleration": 87.65, "rotation_down": 32.13, "downward_expansion": 19.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.636666, 250.421817, 244.126286, 232.53742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 238.869995, "trend_reference": 222.321667, "distance_from_trend": 0.074434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 205.633398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.340364, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061928, "excess_performance": 0.105637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027488, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16163, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.460375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 203238, "relative_activity": 0.330859, "balance": 3.460375, "dry_up": 0.459518, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095511, "annualized_volatility": 0.590177, "from_high_reference": -0.276152, "from_low_reference": 0.743577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 222.321667, "fair_value_reference": 205.633398, "structural_low": 137.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.161355, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.112529, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.363237, "worst_return": -0.152323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.334661, "worst_return": 0.013417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084794, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.277523, "worst_return": 0.007616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06758, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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229.72684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 239.25, "volume": 428037, "typical_volume": 743018.0, "trend": 223.242333, "fair_value": 203.117885, "relative_strength": 0.235196, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.046183, "energy": 34.295859, "activity_lines": [ 254.893333, 256.432, 241.914144, 230.704001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 235.5, "volume": 231617, "typical_volume": 660745.55, "trend": 222.709667, "fair_value": 204.423975, "relative_strength": -3.332117, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.525464, "energy": 24.391188, "activity_lines": [ 247.59, 253.291091, 243.012906, 231.494818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 238.869995, "volume": 203238, "typical_volume": 614274.4, "trend": 222.321667, "fair_value": 205.633398, "relative_strength": -2.340364, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.204079, "energy": 24.371951, "activity_lines": [ 242.636666, 250.421817, 244.126286, 232.53742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }