{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62fd9ae5-de8a-43d3-8efc-78ba33a8c96d", "symbol": "BANSALWIRE", "name": "BANSAL WIRE INDUSTRIES L", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.786, "architecture_energy": 25.087, "architecture_maturity": 44.453, "architecture_confidence": 93.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.06, "rotation_up": 32.94, "upward_expansion": 62.01, "deceleration": 87.11, "rotation_down": 25.5, "downward_expansion": 14.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 323.146671, 324.441821, 317.811715, 305.992172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 332.200012, "trend_reference": 293.02, "distance_from_trend": 0.133711, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 353.309633, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059748, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.131585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.240015, "excess_performance": 0.283724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133711, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081316, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06969, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.240015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.607646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1394755, "relative_activity": 2.093005, "balance": 1.607646, "dry_up": 1.871688, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078741, "annualized_volatility": 0.410025, "from_high_reference": -0.126249, "from_low_reference": 0.493034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 293.02, "fair_value_reference": 353.309633, "structural_low": 222.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013162, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141881, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 356.75, "volume": 35851389, 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625889.95, "trend": 292.01, "fair_value": 353.505092, "relative_strength": 2.714872, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.316194, "energy": 26.984047, "activity_lines": [ 322.320001, 322.185455, 314.995285, 303.399268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 332.200012, "volume": 1394755, "typical_volume": 666388.7, "trend": 293.02, "fair_value": 353.309633, "relative_strength": 8.131585, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.786227, "energy": 25.087244, "activity_lines": [ 323.146671, 324.441821, 317.811715, 305.992172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }