{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6307ddec-f243-4850-893e-4759bec96edf", "symbol": "UMAX", "name": "Betashares S&P 500 Yield Maximiser Complex ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.385, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.341, "architecture_energy": 55.536, "architecture_maturity": 43.438, "architecture_confidence": 60.939, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.69, "rotation_up": 48.25, "upward_expansion": 78.64, "deceleration": 73.24, "rotation_down": 25.8, "downward_expansion": 9.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.377214, 26.311739, 26.019574, 25.668796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.24, "trend_reference": 25.277281, "distance_from_trend": 0.038086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.027161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139524, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.365044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055028, "excess_performance": 0.057506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00365, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.353422, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76464, "relative_activity": 1.090476, "balance": 6.353422, "dry_up": 1.15458, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014764, "annualized_volatility": 0.07876, "from_high_reference": -0.018331, "from_low_reference": 0.110345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.277281, "fair_value_reference": 23.027161, "structural_low": 23.63229, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012988, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": 0.009474, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.050193, "worst_return": -0.038971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.040874, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.030271, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.109287, "worst_return": -0.108502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060797, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.041614, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.186116, "worst_return": -0.088872, "sufficient": 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25.220249, "fair_value": 22.780678, "relative_strength": 3.518167, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.705417, "energy": 86.821021, "activity_lines": [ 26.255094, 26.044768, 25.555261, 25.322782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.006205, "volume": 13870, "typical_volume": 66752.25, "trend": 25.221709, "fair_value": 22.828644, "relative_strength": 3.041292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.653384, "energy": 83.340652, "activity_lines": [ 26.189653, 26.073096, 25.63685, 25.373489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.056005, "volume": 69648, "typical_volume": 67464.95, "trend": 25.225729, "fair_value": 22.875884, "relative_strength": 0.840003, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.186783, "energy": 60.43738, "activity_lines": [ 26.136352, 26.095973, 25.717645, 25.427314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.58, "volume": 85403, "typical_volume": 68407.65, "trend": 25.24461, "fair_value": 22.926648, "relative_strength": -0.389878, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.006926, "energy": 62.809842, "activity_lines": [ 26.259887, 26.202135, 25.839429, 25.514687 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.65, "volume": 92321, "typical_volume": 69561.3, "trend": 25.256703, "fair_value": 22.978356, "relative_strength": 1.392278, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.89833, "energy": 62.995888, "activity_lines": [ 26.3944, 26.302571, 25.95492, 25.605357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 26.24, "volume": 76464, "typical_volume": 70119.85, "trend": 25.277281, "fair_value": 23.027161, "relative_strength": 0.365044, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.340642, "energy": 55.535991, "activity_lines": [ 26.377214, 26.311739, 26.019574, 25.668796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }