{ "ticker": { "uuid": "630d6200-3607-4ffb-b3f3-60f0e4e023d6", "symbol": "000935", "name": "Sichuan Hexie Shuangma Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.476, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.525, "architecture_energy": 71.482, "architecture_maturity": 17.898, "architecture_confidence": 84.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.9, "rotation_up": 9.22, "upward_expansion": 15.89, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 72.3, "downward_expansion": 89.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.736, 24.045636, 25.777667, 26.273548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.18, "trend_reference": 26.843333, "distance_from_trend": -0.173724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.41504, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.10655, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179127, "excess_performance": -0.186526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179127, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26960425, "relative_activity": 0.875379, "balance": 0.575245, "dry_up": 1.445927, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133558, "annualized_volatility": 0.446641, "from_high_reference": -0.350132, "from_low_reference": 0.210699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.843333, "fair_value_reference": 18.41504, "structural_low": 20.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001092, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.440127, "worst_return": -0.108184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018139, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.467521, "worst_return": -0.186647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007899, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.335243, "worst_return": -0.127803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.813726, "energy": 25.991655, "activity_lines": [ 26.018, 27.210546, 27.433524, 27.370581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.68, "volume": 42870724, "typical_volume": 27254257.95, "trend": 27.102, "fair_value": 18.249912, "relative_strength": 0.015561, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.481261, "energy": 23.407727, "activity_lines": [ 26.234, 26.986, 27.356238, 27.349355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.879999, "volume": 51205145, "typical_volume": 28361286.6, "trend": 27.150333, "fair_value": 18.310532, "relative_strength": 6.493578, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.114787, "energy": 20.704453, "activity_lines": [ 26.155333, 26.616727, 27.212952, 27.270516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 64154920, "typical_volume": 29970229.7, "trend": 27.050666, "fair_value": 18.350267, "relative_strength": -8.611177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.420271, "energy": 48.425857, "activity_lines": [ 24.889999, 25.644182, 26.743619, 26.957591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 35809449, "typical_volume": 30703494.65, "trend": 26.932, "fair_value": 18.381263, "relative_strength": -11.663714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.617519, "energy": 67.597553, "activity_lines": [ 23.503333, 24.661273, 26.198571, 26.580129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.18, "volume": 26960425, "typical_volume": 30798578.65, "trend": 26.843333, "fair_value": 18.41504, "relative_strength": -12.10655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.525149, "energy": 71.481649, "activity_lines": [ 22.736, 24.045636, 25.777667, 26.273548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }