{ "ticker": { "uuid": "630d77a2-a4c8-4531-9ab9-b9c98b4be6a8", "symbol": "W1BD34", "name": "Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.24, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.785, "architecture_energy": 56.085, "architecture_maturity": 24.642, "architecture_confidence": 74.989, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.51, "rotation_up": 12.96, "upward_expansion": 9.81, "deceleration": 43.76, "rotation_down": 63.54, "downward_expansion": 80.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.435998, 134.789999, 135.455619, 136.990732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 135.080002, "trend_reference": 139.693668, "distance_from_trend": -0.033027, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 77.846731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.735205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.921022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044966, "excess_performance": 0.012082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033027, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.735205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01921, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32487, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 364, "relative_activity": 0.265422, "balance": 0.32487, "dry_up": 3.165743, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022704, "annualized_volatility": 0.146558, "from_high_reference": -0.213187, "from_low_reference": 1.30906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 139.693668, "fair_value_reference": 77.846731, "structural_low": 129.399994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.02351, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.010345, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.530551, "worst_return": -0.212091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.071742, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.089015, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.303901, "worst_return": -0.355935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.116732, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.206861, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.362863, "worst_return": 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74.629487, "relative_strength": 9.544497, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.343199, "energy": 52.503011, "activity_lines": [ 135.765999, 135.625818, 137.508906, 140.22342 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 139.589996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1212.6, "trend": 143.835, "fair_value": 75.140833, "relative_strength": 9.421093, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.624141, "energy": 32.160839, "activity_lines": [ 136.997998, 136.358908, 137.500286, 139.975334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 137.960007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 934.6, "trend": 143.724001, "fair_value": 75.629808, "relative_strength": 6.520548, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.046156, "energy": 25.555362, "activity_lines": [ 137.447334, 136.748546, 137.345239, 139.596302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 135.410004, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 821.35, "trend": 142.819668, "fair_value": 76.083846, "relative_strength": 1.672111, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.951403, "energy": 31.716034, "activity_lines": [ 136.902668, 136.627637, 136.989049, 139.059915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 138.039993, "volume": 253, "typical_volume": 796.85, "trend": 142.232668, "fair_value": 76.571282, "relative_strength": 5.417941, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.83488, "energy": 18.694739, "activity_lines": [ 137.305332, 136.956727, 136.945667, 138.751549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.389999, "volume": 13680, "typical_volume": 1427.0, "trend": 141.299001, "fair_value": 77.025449, "relative_strength": -0.339578, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.602719, "energy": 50.569364, "activity_lines": [ 135.389999, 135.98709, 136.302095, 138.052022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.119995, "volume": 3069, "typical_volume": 1503.4, "trend": 140.351001, "fair_value": 77.426218, "relative_strength": -4.023213, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.011143, "energy": 75.344685, "activity_lines": [ 133.270664, 134.88418, 135.611238, 137.330796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.080002, "volume": 364, "typical_volume": 1371.4, "trend": 139.693668, "fair_value": 77.846731, "relative_strength": 1.921022, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.784754, "energy": 56.084715, "activity_lines": [ 133.435998, 134.789999, 135.455619, 136.990732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }