{ "ticker": { "uuid": "630e061f-df02-43d4-b4ab-07e69e613057", "symbol": "XSPX", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.726, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.544, "architecture_energy": 66.28, "architecture_maturity": 88.574, "architecture_confidence": 63.459, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 53.05, "upward_expansion": 82.67, "deceleration": 71.35, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 11.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.875334, 132.377273, 130.492714, 127.536408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 135.610001, "trend_reference": 124.037333, "distance_from_trend": 0.0933, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.362821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.148981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.15649, "excess_performance": -0.014402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.528874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6485, "relative_activity": 0.505547, "balance": 1.528874, "dry_up": 1.32058, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018407, "annualized_volatility": 0.118406, "from_high_reference": -0.004332, "from_low_reference": 0.244699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.037333, "fair_value_reference": 105.362821, "structural_low": 111.769997, 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104.352821, "relative_strength": -2.705447, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.660675, "energy": 66.452889, "activity_lines": [ 132.268669, 131.637819, 128.480809, 125.676559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.050003, "volume": 13087, "typical_volume": 13255.1, "trend": 123.081333, "fair_value": 104.679359, "relative_strength": -2.424657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.418539, "energy": 64.515352, "activity_lines": [ 132.264003, 131.809274, 129.155952, 126.286258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.369995, "volume": 8805, "typical_volume": 12832.75, "trend": 123.521333, "fair_value": 105.002244, "relative_strength": -4.206672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.747714, "energy": 58.588333, "activity_lines": [ 131.691334, 131.618, 129.606523, 126.756494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.610001, "volume": 6485, "typical_volume": 12827.7, "trend": 124.037333, "fair_value": 105.362821, "relative_strength": -3.148981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.543734, "energy": 66.279982, "activity_lines": [ 132.875334, 132.377273, 130.492714, 127.536408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }