{ "ticker": { "uuid": "630f9f67-ada0-430c-aa3d-2c3078a54be8", "symbol": "CCC", "name": "Cooks Coffee Company Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.254, "architecture_energy": 88.172, "architecture_maturity": 86.061, "architecture_confidence": 87.454, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.83, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 80.33, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.169933, 0.176527, 0.188119, 0.194527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.172, "trend_reference": 0.202533, "distance_from_trend": -0.150757, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.234481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.266464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.708846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218182, "excess_performance": -0.246455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150757, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.266464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145877, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.106871, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2799, "relative_activity": 0.18188, "balance": 0.106871, "dry_up": 1.441342, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047406, "annualized_volatility": 0.302035, "from_high_reference": -0.436066, "from_low_reference": 0.042424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.202533, "fair_value_reference": 0.234481, "structural_low": 0.165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.023255, "positive_rate": 0.243902, "directional_follow_through": 0.707317, "median_excess_return": -0.026078, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.145729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.056818, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.04743, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.529412, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.186437, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.633987, "worst_return": -0.481356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.231955, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.203617, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.732026, "worst_return": -0.562857, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.486486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.457286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.178, "volume": 11942, "typical_volume": 17885.2, "trend": 0.209633, "fair_value": 0.236038, "relative_strength": -23.758862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.379678, "energy": 75.35007, "activity_lines": [ 0.186467, 0.193673, 0.200143, 0.20428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.172, "volume": 81238, "typical_volume": 20330.8, "trend": 0.208033, "fair_value": 0.235635, "relative_strength": -25.158216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.574063, "energy": 90.042423, "activity_lines": [ 0.180733, 0.188745, 0.197029, 0.201852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.165, "volume": 4622, "typical_volume": 18932.75, "trend": 0.2062, "fair_value": 0.235218, "relative_strength": -27.895076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.654947, "energy": 94.871484, "activity_lines": [ 0.1742, 0.183327, 0.1935, 0.199075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.168, "volume": 66, "typical_volume": 17841.7, "trend": 0.2043, "fair_value": 0.234821, "relative_strength": -25.52313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.469305, "energy": 90.99188, "activity_lines": [ 0.170667, 0.179182, 0.190519, 0.196611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.172, "volume": 2799, "typical_volume": 15389.3, "trend": 0.202533, "fair_value": 0.234481, "relative_strength": -23.708846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.254171, "energy": 88.1723, "activity_lines": [ 0.169933, 0.176527, 0.188119, 0.194527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }