{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63106202-bf9a-4841-9f5d-1c0ebb9f199e", "symbol": "AZEV4", "name": "Azevedo & Travassos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.44, "architecture_energy": 47.967, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.635, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.86, "rotation_up": 24.41, "upward_expansion": 7.08, "deceleration": 60.55, "rotation_down": 52.77, "downward_expansion": 80.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.646, 1.710364, 2.042238, 2.380796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.75, "trend_reference": 2.866667, "distance_from_trend": -0.389535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.110256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.91298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.659379, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5625, "excess_performance": -0.505452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.389535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249564, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.91298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034732, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.656594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745098, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34030300, "relative_activity": 6.20647, "balance": 0.745098, "dry_up": 3.88055, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323516, "annualized_volatility": 1.277149, "from_high_reference": -0.869403, "from_low_reference": 0.521739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.866667, "fair_value_reference": 20.110256, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.311111, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072896, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.344, "worst_return": -0.436364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.124224, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.157754, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.577236, "worst_return": -0.42268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.161658, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.197591, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.726563, "worst_return": -0.639175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, 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"typical_volume": 2060061.25, "trend": 3.129333, "fair_value": 20.88, "relative_strength": -78.864245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.673771, "energy": 90.995036, "activity_lines": [ 1.540667, 1.874727, 2.27481, 2.638516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.23, "volume": 11986200, "typical_volume": 2540456.75, "trend": 3.030333, "fair_value": 20.630192, "relative_strength": -78.136587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.471234, "energy": 90.140554, "activity_lines": [ 1.372, 1.711455, 2.142048, 2.515978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.14, "volume": 27864500, "typical_volume": 3828734.5, "trend": 2.955, "fair_value": 20.382372, "relative_strength": -61.129189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.766152, "energy": 62.393593, "activity_lines": [ 1.571333, 1.742182, 2.10819, 2.458538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.75, "volume": 34030300, "typical_volume": 5483036.5, "trend": 2.866667, "fair_value": 20.110256, "relative_strength": -65.659379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.439612, "energy": 47.96668, "activity_lines": [ 1.646, 1.710364, 2.042238, 2.380796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }