{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6313ab5a-b66d-41fc-90c8-90d9690cc775", "symbol": "MGA", "name": "Mega Uranium Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.769, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.367, "architecture_energy": 53.6, "architecture_maturity": 12.688, "architecture_confidence": 90.137, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.4, "rotation_up": 16.25, "upward_expansion": 10.27, "deceleration": 41.91, "rotation_down": 62.57, "downward_expansion": 85.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.539333, 0.548727, 0.589571, 0.604344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.57, "trend_reference": 0.622, "distance_from_trend": -0.083601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.403205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.683888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033898, "excess_performance": -0.15432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033898, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1957200, "relative_activity": 0.676346, "balance": 0.377583, "dry_up": 0.850011, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11471, "annualized_volatility": 0.610401, "from_high_reference": -0.2875, "from_low_reference": 1.192308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.622, "fair_value_reference": 0.403205, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.032866, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.06419, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.392857, "worst_return": -0.128205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046658, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.03125, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.444444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, 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"typical_volume": 3442680.0, "trend": 0.623667, "fair_value": 0.395577, "relative_strength": -2.160924, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.446754, "energy": 47.680074, "activity_lines": [ 0.567333, 0.592909, 0.623238, 0.627849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.51, "volume": 1504800, "typical_volume": 3373900.0, "trend": 0.623333, "fair_value": 0.3975, "relative_strength": -9.550035, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.680713, "energy": 72.207707, "activity_lines": [ 0.544, 0.572727, 0.61181, 0.620516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.53, "volume": 2116700, "typical_volume": 3194205.0, "trend": 0.624667, "fair_value": 0.399487, "relative_strength": -6.698863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.917018, "energy": 68.105116, "activity_lines": [ 0.534, 0.560364, 0.603048, 0.614495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.52, "volume": 4260300, "typical_volume": 3205350.0, "trend": 0.622667, "fair_value": 0.401218, "relative_strength": -8.609556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.350677, "energy": 66.889938, "activity_lines": [ 0.527333, 0.549091, 0.593714, 0.607742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.57, "volume": 1957200, "typical_volume": 2893785.0, "trend": 0.622, "fair_value": 0.403205, "relative_strength": -3.683888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.366622, "energy": 53.59956, "activity_lines": [ 0.539333, 0.548727, 0.589571, 0.604344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }