{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63154d27-33d0-4b76-b62d-79dea5c7bf2f", "symbol": "1722", "name": "Taiwan Fertilizer Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.647, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.676, "architecture_energy": 47.311, "architecture_maturity": 4.614, "architecture_confidence": 80.526, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.45, "rotation_up": 14.84, "upward_expansion": 23.37, "deceleration": 50.68, "rotation_down": 68.0, "downward_expansion": 53.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.71, 46.458182, 46.822619, 46.804086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.25, "trend_reference": 46.778334, "distance_from_trend": -0.032672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.843593, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143699, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.882014, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014161, "excess_performance": -0.455533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000803, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.901134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9631133, "relative_activity": 0.588895, "balance": 0.901134, "dry_up": 0.785551, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035954, "annualized_volatility": 0.251553, "from_high_reference": -0.137292, "from_low_reference": 0.027242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.778334, "fair_value_reference": 52.843593, "structural_low": 44.049999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020263, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026984, "worst_return": -0.096296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011111, "worst_return": -0.067026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077001, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.061258, "worst_return": -0.172237, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001572, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040185, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.168225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", 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53.05804, "relative_strength": -30.7539, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.892042, "energy": 9.93519, "activity_lines": [ 47.2, 47.483636, 47.220714, 47.067527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.799999, "volume": 14186688, "typical_volume": 18149022.0, "trend": 46.885, "fair_value": 52.985345, "relative_strength": -29.877398, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.57186, "energy": 14.190923, "activity_lines": [ 46.663333, 47.183636, 47.107143, 46.994516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.5, "volume": 15702572, "typical_volume": 16840723.45, "trend": 46.816667, "fair_value": 52.911295, "relative_strength": -31.1075, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.954378, "energy": 32.480123, "activity_lines": [ 46.12, 46.833636, 46.973095, 46.905161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 45.25, "volume": 9631133, "typical_volume": 16354573.6, "trend": 46.778334, "fair_value": 52.843593, "relative_strength": -32.882014, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.676094, "energy": 47.310904, "activity_lines": [ 45.71, 46.458182, 46.822619, 46.804086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }