{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63189264-baf7-4e5b-b1f8-9154e5b5283b", "symbol": "MLCOU", "name": "Courbet H\u00e9ritage soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.769, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.641, "architecture_energy": 6.717, "architecture_maturity": 48.451, "architecture_confidence": 39.76, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.29, "rotation_up": 33.4, "upward_expansion": 29.11, "deceleration": 58.39, "rotation_down": 29.09, "downward_expansion": 27.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.321333, 1.333091, 1.274952, 1.277355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.29, "trend_reference": 1.291667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.193846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.411992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.438697, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078571, "excess_performance": -0.131883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006665, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.411992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004026, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.299959, "dry_up": 3.280917, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094216, "annualized_volatility": 0.622009, "from_high_reference": -0.14, "from_low_reference": 0.433333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.291667, "fair_value_reference": 2.193846, "structural_low": 0.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.12546, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.655319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.064, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.113208, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.62766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.07, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.027756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.9, "worst_return": -0.604255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.283571, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.725532, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150685, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", 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1.231333, 1.25471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 600.0, "trend": 1.287333, "fair_value": 2.197564, "relative_strength": 7.363816, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.195458, "energy": 51.417513, "activity_lines": [ 1.391333, 1.266727, 1.253143, 1.26757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.49, "volume": 4563, "typical_volume": 802.65, "trend": 1.298667, "fair_value": 2.200705, "relative_strength": 8.255897, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.03116, "energy": 53.80937, "activity_lines": [ 1.454, 1.317091, 1.274762, 1.280645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.25, "volume": 15817, "typical_volume": 1593.5, "trend": 1.291, "fair_value": 2.200385, "relative_strength": -9.233533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.154679, "energy": 48.91374, "activity_lines": [ 1.404, 1.320364, 1.272333, 1.277505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.29, "volume": 1507, "typical_volume": 1668.25, "trend": 1.291333, "fair_value": 2.197115, "relative_strength": -7.32981, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.823953, "energy": 25.709038, "activity_lines": [ 1.357333, 1.328364, 1.273667, 1.277441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.29, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1667.75, "trend": 1.291667, "fair_value": 2.193846, "relative_strength": -9.438697, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.640907, "energy": 6.717059, "activity_lines": [ 1.321333, 1.333091, 1.274952, 1.277355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }