{ "ticker": { "uuid": "631b0837-274e-40a8-a916-d383f0ba1dbe", "symbol": "002564", "name": "SuZhou THVOW Technology. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.076, "architecture_energy": 63.631, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 28.04, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.51, "rotation_down": 54.93, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.278667, 4.348545, 4.813381, 5.287269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 5.986333, "distance_from_trend": -0.264992, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.06359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.529613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.413333, "excess_performance": -0.420733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.264992, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.405296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.413333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65464964, "relative_activity": 1.013487, "balance": 0.241368, "dry_up": 1.124104, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096154, "annualized_volatility": 0.319635, "from_high_reference": -0.552846, "from_low_reference": 0.119593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.986333, "fair_value_reference": 5.06359, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04464, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.318182, "worst_return": -0.256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053856, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.405063, "worst_return": -0.216802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.195467, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.1022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.432911, "worst_return": -0.010667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -76.541044, "energy": 85.478824, "activity_lines": [ 4.458, 4.761273, 5.323048, 5.812387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.1, "volume": 79501607, "typical_volume": 63978908.2, "trend": 6.325667, "fair_value": 5.035513, "relative_strength": -44.302034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.152075, "energy": 87.702881, "activity_lines": [ 4.31, 4.581273, 5.159524, 5.661548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.07, "volume": 78682200, "typical_volume": 63594699.05, "trend": 6.209333, "fair_value": 5.04391, "relative_strength": -44.404335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.875703, "energy": 70.63216, "activity_lines": [ 4.204667, 4.435818, 5.010095, 5.516022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 66791880, "typical_volume": 64101656.05, "trend": 6.096333, "fair_value": 5.053974, "relative_strength": -38.920656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.377879, "energy": 66.189191, "activity_lines": [ 4.236, 4.375636, 4.903429, 5.39671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 65464964, "typical_volume": 64593791.15, "trend": 5.986333, "fair_value": 5.06359, "relative_strength": -40.529613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.076324, "energy": 63.630623, "activity_lines": [ 4.278667, 4.348545, 4.813381, 5.287269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }