{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63232cac-9701-4da8-b287-b9477d7369cc", "symbol": "OTIS", "name": "Otis Worldwide Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.556, "architecture_energy": 67.364, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.525, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.54, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 50.64, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1230.0, 1230.016366, 1255.216963, 1310.886988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1230.0, "trend_reference": 1389.922554, "distance_from_trend": -0.115059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1653.362662, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256062, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.989423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217571, "excess_performance": -0.162904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.835616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.835616, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009331, "annualized_volatility": 0.259683, "from_high_reference": -0.270716, "from_low_reference": 0.000895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1389.922554, "fair_value_reference": 1653.362662, "structural_low": 1228.900024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.026948, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.192178, "worst_return": -0.156261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058768, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.044584, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.122437, "worst_return": -0.142989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031842, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.128385, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.043539, "worst_return": -0.1781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 23.05, "trend": 1413.692131, "fair_value": 1656.817277, "relative_strength": -20.572633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.319823, "energy": 68.533794, "activity_lines": [ 1230.0, 1230.029099, 1272.529919, 1333.84033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1230.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.05, "trend": 1402.08468, "fair_value": 1655.018029, "relative_strength": -20.596307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.958395, "energy": 67.998791, "activity_lines": [ 1230.0, 1230.032733, 1262.920397, 1321.989225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1230.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.05, "trend": 1389.922554, "fair_value": 1653.362662, "relative_strength": -19.989423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.555691, "energy": 67.363552, "activity_lines": [ 1230.0, 1230.016366, 1255.216963, 1310.886988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }