{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63253a6f-38ac-49f5-8773-1d66065c847d", "symbol": "UUP", "name": "INVESCO DB US DLR INDEX TR BULLISH FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.722, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.553, "architecture_energy": 38.089, "architecture_maturity": 69.601, "architecture_confidence": 43.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.22, "rotation_up": 40.81, "upward_expansion": 67.52, "deceleration": 65.3, "rotation_down": 26.4, "downward_expansion": 17.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.254667, 28.288727, 28.091571, 27.931699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.07, "trend_reference": 27.692333, "distance_from_trend": 0.013638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.827386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.629628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039245, "excess_performance": -0.08638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012971, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039245, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858969, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10127821, "relative_activity": 0.908356, "balance": 0.858969, "dry_up": 0.931291, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009882, "annualized_volatility": 0.060561, "from_high_reference": -0.018531, "from_low_reference": 0.07488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.692333, "fair_value_reference": 26.827386, "structural_low": 26.73, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.000522, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018981, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.038027, "worst_return": -0.053637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016083, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.028104, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.071241, "worst_return": -0.071119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011392, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.052319, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.113406, "worst_return": -0.03146, "sufficient": 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"energy": 87.269824, "activity_lines": [ 28.349333, 28.170364, 27.926286, 27.755418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.33, "volume": 11929099, "typical_volume": 12580268.0, "trend": 27.578667, "fair_value": 26.757718, "relative_strength": -4.731939, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.706245, "energy": 81.397276, "activity_lines": [ 28.363333, 28.230364, 27.979095, 27.806452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.58, "volume": 7003089, "typical_volume": 12106088.35, "trend": 27.632333, "fair_value": 26.783873, "relative_strength": -3.182617, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.618109, "energy": 77.938773, "activity_lines": [ 28.435333, 28.317818, 28.049762, 27.871054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.17, "volume": 12474162, "typical_volume": 11863845.0, "trend": 27.667667, "fair_value": 26.80673, "relative_strength": -5.349318, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.224548, "energy": 52.710906, "activity_lines": [ 28.352, 28.316, 28.076095, 27.905742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.07, "volume": 10127821, "typical_volume": 11149617.35, "trend": 27.692333, "fair_value": 26.827386, "relative_strength": -8.629628, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.553252, "energy": 38.088566, "activity_lines": [ 28.254667, 28.288727, 28.091571, 27.931699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }