{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63308b18-a11d-4a33-839a-baee621733b9", "symbol": "VOT", "name": "VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS VANGUARD MID-CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.336, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.449, "architecture_energy": 31.616, "architecture_maturity": 44.52, "architecture_confidence": 79.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.44, "rotation_up": 38.97, "upward_expansion": 60.57, "deceleration": 84.45, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 19.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 298.589333, 298.746316, 295.327631, 289.640919 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 306.28, "trend_reference": 283.875761, "distance_from_trend": 0.078923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 251.691069, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.119524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120232, "excess_performance": -0.005393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02037, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032722, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120232, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.331584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1045863, "relative_activity": 1.000561, "balance": 1.331584, "dry_up": 0.996427, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035512, "annualized_volatility": 0.160702, "from_high_reference": -0.011043, "from_low_reference": 0.233856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 283.875761, "fair_value_reference": 251.691069, "structural_low": 248.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017683, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007362, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.085832, "worst_return": -0.029814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015433, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016787, "worst_return": -0.088456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096379, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.050072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139311, "worst_return": -0.089192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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65.050762, "energy": 61.008899, "activity_lines": [ 301.357017, 298.791728, 290.718696, 285.964628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 293.31, "volume": 1309644, "typical_volume": 1082294.35, "trend": 282.401547, "fair_value": 249.859226, "relative_strength": -5.301147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.759596, "energy": 40.729083, "activity_lines": [ 298.818738, 298.29614, 291.680906, 286.692688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 292.16, "volume": 1008225, "typical_volume": 1069947.0, "trend": 282.683649, "fair_value": 250.404018, "relative_strength": -4.821115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.615224, "energy": 29.832861, "activity_lines": [ 296.127333, 297.500451, 292.460253, 287.322266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 295.52, "volume": 802435, "typical_volume": 1043475.5, "trend": 283.177216, "fair_value": 251.005608, "relative_strength": -4.475144, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.200544, "energy": 23.820023, "activity_lines": [ 295.463333, 297.18801, 293.459753, 288.150417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 306.28, "volume": 1045863, "typical_volume": 1045276.65, "trend": 283.875761, "fair_value": 251.691069, "relative_strength": -4.119524, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.448799, "energy": 31.615918, "activity_lines": [ 298.589333, 298.746316, 295.327631, 289.640919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }