{ "ticker": { "uuid": "63334619-2520-4acb-8606-d5d7e4e3a385", "symbol": "SAUDI", "name": "Franklin FTSE Saudi Arabia UCITS ETF SINGLCLASS USD Accumulation", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.925, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.5, "architecture_energy": 18.733, "architecture_maturity": 50.076, "architecture_confidence": 62.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.29, "rotation_up": 20.32, "upward_expansion": 23.83, "deceleration": 66.48, "rotation_down": 51.69, "downward_expansion": 32.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.087466, 21.182545, 21.201795, 21.146178 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.320999, "trend_reference": 21.096867, "distance_from_trend": 0.010624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.338222, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000807, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.793479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00353, "excess_performance": -0.049781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014271, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000807, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039761, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.299817, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.869093, "balance": 1.299817, "dry_up": 1.471483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011, "annualized_volatility": 0.108987, "from_high_reference": -0.048594, "from_low_reference": 0.087085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.096867, "fair_value_reference": 21.338222, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026825, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 24.77, "volume": 779, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 24.899, "volume": 5583, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 25.018999, "volume": 80, 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"gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.476999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.173, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.924, "volume": 1946, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.209999, "volume": 359, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.764, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 460.95, "trend": 21.060333, "fair_value": 21.338437, "relative_strength": -5.164047, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.268993, "energy": 35.462268, "activity_lines": [ 21.017, 21.165109, 21.1855, 21.129361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.320999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 460.25, "trend": 21.096867, "fair_value": 21.338222, "relative_strength": -4.793479, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.500181, "energy": 18.73251, "activity_lines": [ 21.087466, 21.182545, 21.201795, 21.146178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }