{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6335c42b-ca08-479f-9021-075bc067553e", "symbol": "300738", "name": "Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.644, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.737, "architecture_energy": 15.473, "architecture_maturity": 14.71, "architecture_confidence": 45.922, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.52, "rotation_up": 32.19, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 24.11, "downward_expansion": 53.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.758667, 21.133093, 21.85969, 22.283699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.59, "trend_reference": 22.70885, "distance_from_trend": -0.005234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.090474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.963913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052035, "excess_performance": -0.059435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026655, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.403936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009639, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052035, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.734609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428849589, "relative_activity": 1.388453, "balance": 1.734609, "dry_up": 1.23464, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121667, "annualized_volatility": 0.536294, "from_high_reference": -0.233478, "from_low_reference": 0.267677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.70885, "fair_value_reference": 16.090474, "structural_low": 18.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001753, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.019981, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.359743, "worst_return": -0.133399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014374, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.008216, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.687842, "worst_return": -0.196495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.151365, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.130307, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.360441, "worst_return": -0.026753, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.11229, "energy": 25.868156, "activity_lines": [ 20.539159, 20.523472, 21.846219, 22.287916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.360001, "volume": 320267292, "typical_volume": 310338566.2, "trend": 22.572183, "fair_value": 16.004993, "relative_strength": 4.958482, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.652882, "energy": 17.994139, "activity_lines": [ 21.210667, 20.779888, 21.84124, 22.282549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.59, "volume": 428849589, "typical_volume": 308868567.55, "trend": 22.70885, "fair_value": 16.090474, "relative_strength": 0.963913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.736518, "energy": 15.472731, "activity_lines": [ 21.758667, 21.133093, 21.85969, 22.283699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }